Vietnam PMI March 2026: Strongest rise in selling prices for almost 15 years as war in Middle East leads to steep cost inflation

Sharp rise in input costs leads to fastest increase in charges since April 2011.
Rates of growth in output and new orders ease markedly.
Lead times lengthen to greatest extent in four years.

Cimigo Vietnam market research has collected the Vietnam PMI – manufacturing purchasing managers index since 2013. S&P Global compiles the Vietnam PMI S&P Global from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers.

Vietnam PMI findings

The war in the Middle East caused a marked acceleration in the rate of input cost inflation in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector during March, with selling prices subsequently raised at the fastest pace in almost 15 years.

Intensifying price pressures acted to limit demand, and rates of growth in both new orders and output slowed as a result. In turn, employment and purchasing activity were scaled back. Meanwhile, suppliers’ delivery times lengthened substantially. The impacts of the war also resulted in weaker business confidence, with optimism easing to a six-month low.

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) remained above the 50.0 no-change mark in March, extending the current sequence of improving business conditions to nine months. That said, the PMI dropped to 51.2 from February’s 54.3 and pointed to the least marked strengthening of operating conditions since last September.

A key feature of the March PMI survey was the impact of the war in the Middle East on inflation. An increase in the price of oil resulted in higher costs for freight, fuel and transportation. As a result, close to half of respondents recorded an increase in their input costs during March, with the pace of inflation the sharpest since April 2022.

With higher input costs often passed on to customers, output prices increased at one of the sharpest rates since the survey began in 2011. The pace of inflation seen in March was the steepest in just under 15 years.

Sharply rising prices in the sector acted to limit demand. Total new orders continued to rise as some firms reported that clients had purchased in advance to try to get ahead of price increases. The rate of expansion was only modest, however, and the weakest since last September.

Meanwhile, international demand suffered, with new export orders decreasing markedly following stable new business from abroad in February. In line with the picture for total new business, manufacturing production increased at a much-reduced pace during March. The latest rise in output was the eleventh in as many months, but least pronounced since June 2025.

Vietnam PMI March Trend

Slower growth of new orders and higher input costs led to a reluctance among manufacturers to commit to additional purchases in March. Input buying decreased markedly, ending an eight-month sequence of expansion. Stocks of purchases were also down.

Where firms did buy inputs, they faced a substantial lengthening of suppliers’ delivery times, one that was the most pronounced in four years. Respondents indicated that higher fuel costs resulted in transportation delays.

As well as scaling back purchasing activity, manufacturers also signalled a reduction in employment. Staffing levels decreased for the first time in six months. Firms reported difficulties replacing departing staff members, and a drop in the number of temporary workers.

With employment down and firms facing difficulties securing materials, backlogs of work increased in March. The slight accumulation was the first in four months. In some cases, manufacturers used stocks of finished goods to help satisfy order requirements, resulting in a marked fall in post production inventories.

Business confidence dropped to a six-month low in March amid concerns around the impact of the war in the Middle East on international demand, prices and the supply of materials. That said, hopes that underlying demand would remain solid and support growth of new orders and output meant that firms on balance continued to predict an increase in production over the coming year.

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The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI® is compiled by S&P Global from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP.

Survey responses are collected by Cimigo Vietnam in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses.

The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted.

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