Vietnam PMI September 2026: Growth slows as exports fall

Admin
Oct 01, 2026

Vietnam PMI September 2026: New orders rise solidly, but growth slows amid fall in exports

  • Slower increases in output and new orders.
  • Sharpest fall in new export business in five months.
  • Higher costs for oil and fuel drive up input prices, but selling price inflation eases.

Cimigo Vietnam market research has collected the Vietnam PMI – manufacturing purchasing managers index since 2013. S&P Global compiles the Vietnam PMI S&P Global from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers.

Vietnam PMI findings

Vietnam PMI September 2026

The Vietnamese manufacturing sector remained in growth territory in September, although rates of expansion in output and new orders eased from those seen in August. Softer growth of new orders meant that firms were able to keep on top of workloads despite a second successive monthly reduction in employment. Meanwhile, input costs continued to rise markedly, but the rate of output price inflation eased again, in part due to competitive pressures.

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) dropped to 51.9 in September from August’s reading of 53.3, thereby signalling a smaller improvement in the health of the sector at the end of the third quarter. Nonetheless, business conditions have now strengthened in each of the past 15 months. A further marked rise in manufacturing production was registered in September, continuing the sequence of expansion which began in May 2025. The rate of growth eased from that seen in August, however.

Panellists reported that higher new orders were behind the latest increase in output, but here too the pace of expansion slowed. In fact, the rise in new business was the weakest in
the current five-month period of growth. Where new orders increased, panellists reported improving market conditions and customers expanding their order volumes.

There were again reports of weakness in international demand, however, resulting in a second successive fall in new export orders. New business from abroad decreased solidly, and at the fastest pace since April.  Backlogs of work were broadly unchanged in September, after having risen in each of the previous two months. While a combination of rising new orders and falling employment imparted pressure on capacity at some firms, others reported that slower growth of new business meant that they were able to keep on top of workloads.

The latest reduction in employment was the second in as many months, as panellists reported a combination of staff resignations and restructuring efforts. The fall in staffing levels in September was only slight, however.

Vietnam PMI September Trend

A further marked increase in purchasing activity was recorded in September as firms secured inputs to help support output growth. The use of materials in the production process meant that stocks of inputs continued to fall.

Manufacturers also expressed a desire to draw down holdings of finished products, and used the prompt shipment of goods to customers to achieve this. In fact, stocks of finished goods decreased at the sharpest pace since the survey began in March 2011. Suppliers’ delivery times lengthened modestly, meanwhile, with panellists linking delays to issues with international shipping and poor weather conditions.

International issues were also central to a further rise in input costs as the war in the Middle East caused higher prices for fuel and oil. Increased transportation costs were also reported. The rate of input price inflation was marked and slightly faster than in August, albeit still among the lowest over the past year. Meanwhile, the pace of output price inflation slowed for the fifth consecutive month and was the weakest since June 2025, as strong competition limited the ability of firms to pass higher input costs through to customers.

Expected improvements in market conditions supported confidence that output will rise over the coming year. The planned launch of new products was also behind the optimistic outlook, with sentiment reaching its highest since February.

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI® is compiled by S&P Global from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 manufacturers. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP.

Survey responses are collected by Cimigo Vietnam in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses.

The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted.

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