Vietnam PMI tháng 9/2026: Đơn hàng mới tăng vững, nhưng tăng trưởng chậm lại do xuất khẩu giảm

Sản lượng và đơn hàng mới tăng chậm hơn.
Đơn hàng xuất khẩu mới giảm mạnh nhất trong năm tháng.
Chi phí dầu và nhiên liệu tăng đẩy giá đầu vào lên cao, nhưng lạm phát giá bán giảm.

Cimigo nghiên cứu thị trường Việt Nam đã thu thập dữ liệu Vietnam PMI, chỉ số nhà quản trị mua hàng ngành sản xuất, từ năm 2013. S&P Global tổng hợp Vietnam PMI S&P Global từ các câu trả lời cho bảng câu hỏi hàng tháng được gửi tới các nhà quản trị mua hàng trong nhóm khoảng 400 nhà sản xuất.

Kết quả Vietnam PMI

Ngành sản xuất Việt Nam tiếp tục duy trì đà tăng trưởng trong tháng 9, mặc dù tốc độ tăng sản lượng và đơn hàng mới chậm lại so với tháng 8. Tăng trưởng đơn hàng mới yếu hơn giúp các doanh nghiệp kiểm soát được khối lượng công việc tồn đọng, bất chấp việc làm giảm tháng thứ hai liên tiếp. Trong khi đó, chi phí đầu vào tiếp tục tăng đáng kể, nhưng tốc độ lạm phát giá bán tiếp tục giảm, một phần do áp lực cạnh tranh.

Chỉ số Nhà quản trị mua hàng™ (PMI®) ngành sản xuất Việt Nam của S&P Global giảm từ 53.3 điểm trong tháng 8 xuống 51.9 điểm trong tháng 9, cho thấy mức cải thiện của ngành vào cuối quý III đã thu hẹp. Tuy nhiên, điều kiện kinh doanh đã cải thiện trong 15 tháng liên tiếp. Sản lượng ngành sản xuất tiếp tục tăng đáng kể trong tháng 9, kéo dài chuỗi tăng trưởng bắt đầu từ tháng 5/2025. Tuy nhiên, tốc độ tăng đã chậm lại so với tháng 8.

Các thành viên nhóm khảo sát cho biết đơn hàng mới tăng là động lực thúc đẩy sản lượng trong kỳ khảo sát mới nhất, nhưng tốc độ tăng cũng chậm lại. Trên thực tế, mức tăng đơn hàng mới là thấp nhất trong
giai đoạn tăng trưởng năm tháng hiện nay. Tại những doanh nghiệp có đơn hàng mới tăng, các thành viên nhóm khảo sát cho biết điều kiện thị trường được cải thiện và khách hàng gia tăng khối lượng đặt hàng.

Tuy nhiên, nhu cầu quốc tế tiếp tục có dấu hiệu suy yếu, khiến đơn hàng xuất khẩu mới giảm tháng thứ hai liên tiếp. Đơn hàng mới từ nước ngoài giảm đáng kể, với tốc độ nhanh nhất kể từ tháng 4. Khối lượng công việc tồn đọng nhìn chung không thay đổi trong tháng 9, sau khi tăng trong hai tháng trước đó. Trong khi sự kết hợp giữa đơn hàng mới tăng và việc làm giảm gây áp lực lên công suất tại một số doanh nghiệp, các doanh nghiệp khác cho biết tăng trưởng đơn hàng mới chậm hơn giúp họ kiểm soát được khối lượng công việc.

Việc làm tiếp tục giảm tháng thứ hai liên tiếp, khi các thành viên nhóm khảo sát cho biết nguyên nhân đến từ cả nhân viên nghỉ việc và các nỗ lực tái cơ cấu. Tuy nhiên, mức giảm nhân sự trong tháng 9 chỉ ở mức nhẹ.

Xu hướng PMI

Hoạt động mua hàng tiếp tục tăng đáng kể trong tháng 9 khi các doanh nghiệp mua đầu vào để hỗ trợ tăng trưởng sản lượng. Việc sử dụng nguyên vật liệu trong quá trình sản xuất khiến tồn kho đầu vào tiếp tục giảm.

Các nhà sản xuất cũng cho thấy mong muốn giảm lượng thành phẩm tồn kho và đã đẩy nhanh việc giao hàng cho khách hàng để đạt mục tiêu này. Trên thực tế, tồn kho thành phẩm giảm với tốc độ nhanh nhất kể từ khi khảo sát bắt đầu vào tháng 3/2011. Trong khi đó, thời gian giao hàng của nhà cung cấp kéo dài ở mức vừa phải, với các thành viên nhóm khảo sát cho rằng sự chậm trễ liên quan đến các vấn đề trong hoạt động vận chuyển quốc tế và điều kiện thời tiết xấu.

Các vấn đề quốc tế cũng là nguyên nhân chính khiến chi phí đầu vào tiếp tục tăng, khi chiến tranh ở Trung Đông khiến giá nhiên liệu và dầu tăng cao. Chi phí vận chuyển tăng cũng được ghi nhận. Tốc độ lạm phát giá đầu vào ở mức đáng kể và nhanh hơn một chút so với tháng 8, mặc dù vẫn thuộc nhóm thấp nhất trong một năm qua. Trong khi đó, tốc độ lạm phát giá bán chậm lại tháng thứ năm liên tiếp và ở mức thấp nhất kể từ tháng 6/2025, do cạnh tranh mạnh hạn chế khả năng của doanh nghiệp trong việc chuyển chi phí đầu vào cao hơn sang khách hàng.

Kỳ vọng điều kiện thị trường cải thiện đã củng cố niềm tin rằng sản lượng sẽ tăng trong năm tới. Kế hoạch ra mắt các sản phẩm mới cũng góp phần tạo nên triển vọng lạc quan, với mức độ lạc quan cao nhất kể từ tháng 2.

Tải báo cáo

Chỉ số PMI® ngành sản xuất Việt Nam của S&P Global được S&P Global tổng hợp từ các câu trả lời cho bảng câu hỏi hàng tháng được gửi tới các nhà quản trị mua hàng trong nhóm khoảng 400 nhà sản xuất. Nhóm khảo sát được phân tầng theo ngành chi tiết và quy mô lực lượng lao động của doanh nghiệp, dựa trên mức đóng góp vào GDP.

Các câu trả lời khảo sát được Cimigo Vietnam thu thập trong nửa cuối mỗi tháng và cho biết chiều hướng thay đổi so với tháng trước. Một chỉ số khuếch tán được tính cho từng biến số khảo sát. Chỉ số này là tổng tỷ lệ phần trăm câu trả lời ‘tăng’ và một nửa tỷ lệ phần trăm câu trả lời ‘không thay đổi’.

Các chỉ số dao động từ 0 đến 100, trong đó mức trên 50 cho thấy mức tăng tổng thể so với tháng trước, còn mức dưới 50 cho thấy mức giảm tổng thể. Sau đó, các chỉ số được điều chỉnh theo mùa.

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Trong vai trò Giám đốc Marketing kiêm chuyên gia nghiên cứu thị trường và cố vấn chiến lược Marketing trên các thị trường quốc tế, tôi đã làm việc với rất nhiều đơn vị nghiên cúu thị trường rất chuyên nghiệp và hiệu quả từ Global đến Local.

Cimigo là một trong số đó, team Cimigo chuyên nghiệp cao, nhiệt tình và hiệu quả, từ thiết kế nghiên cứu, thực địa đến phân tích insight – tất cả đều được thực hiện chỉn chu, đúng hạn và cực kỳ sát với nhu cầu business. Đây là một đội ngũ tuyệt vời mà tôi luôn sẵn sàng recommend cho các đối tác của tôi...

Mark Ratcliff - Managing Director

The team at Cimigo are my favourite researchers in South East Asia. They’ve proved adept at tackling the most private and complex personal issues at qualitative research level, not flinching when the client endlessly chopped and changed fieldwork timing, or ramped up the workload without warning. They have recruited the most extraordinarily niche consumers without pause or complaint. Their patience with clients and their flexibility and hard work that went above and beyond what was initially asked of them on two projects relating to sexual behaviour means there is now no other research company we would choose to work with in that part of Asia. The fact they also pulled off a third project for us so well, on men’s relationship with beer and beer advertising, shows they have breadth of expertise— we still quote from the report they produced.

If only all our research partners were as switched on and easy to work with.

Kevin McQuillan - Chief Marketing Officer

Starting with customer understanding is critical to how we manage our business and develop for the future. Cimigo undertook a challenging brief – across multiple cities and segments nationwide – and again came up with a high-quality solution with timely implementation and considered insights, allowing us to successfully orientate our plans and strategy around consumers in Vietnam.

Lisa Nguyen - Vietnam Marketing Lead

It's been a great experience working with the Cimigo team. The team was highly professional, proactive, and supportive, handling many complicated requests from us in such a limited time. I appreciate our cooperation and will definitely recommend Cimigo for upcoming similar projects.

Sam Houston - Chief Executive Officer

Cimigo’s responsiveness and insights exceeded expectations; I highly recommend their market research services. Atlas tasked Cimigo with analysing and prioritising opportunities across four international markets. Cimigo mapped the Architecture, Construction, and Engineering landscape in each market, identified and prioritised opportunities, derived a dollar value by opportunity and provided details on target prospects and projects. This data-driven approach has enabled Atlas to develop services and focus resources on where we can bring the most value in our international markets.

Minh Thu - Consumer Market Insights Manager

Working with Cimigo has been incredibly rewarding. Their exceptional service and unwavering commitment to excellence have been truly impressive. Together, we've successfully completed projects ranging from fabric care like detergents and fabric softener to home essentials like floor cleaner and dishwashing liquid in both urban and rural settings, showcasing Cimigo's versatility and dedication to reaching diverse markets. Thanks to Cimigo's dedication and expertise, we secured a major project with our client last year. I'm grateful for our partnership and excited for future collaborations.

Travis Mitchell - Executive Director

Cimigo has been an excellent partner for AmCham. They provided insightful feedback during the planning phase of our project and offered suggestions to ensure that we met our goals. Their analysis was comprehensive, thoughtful, and accurate, and I appreciated their customer service skills – I always felt that Cimigo had our best interests at heart. I’m very much looking forward to working with Cimigo again in the near future!

Malcolm Farmer - Managing Director

I have never seen or had support for our business like we have received from Cimigo Vietnam. The depth & understanding of our business shows how well you have studied both Jardines Distribution Inc. and Koppers Performance Chemicals. We, (JDI & KPC), really appreciate the efforts the whole Cimigo team have put into your research. The help to connect potential distributors for both our Industrial and retail products are absolutely on point. I will have no hesitation in recommending Cimigo Vietnam to any company wanting to venture into the Vietnam market.

Hy Vu - Head of Research Department

Cimigo is one of the top research companies in Vietnam that provides very good services and actionable insights. We have the pleasure of working with Cimigo. With extensive knowledge of Vietnamese consumers, Cimigo keeps bringing value to our company. We look forward to working with them in the future.

Joe Nelson - New Zealand Consulate General

The research provided by Cimigo provided our clients with very specific insights into consumer behaviour in Viet Nam. What I liked was the way Cimigo interpreted these insights to develop a clear call to action for our clients, which they are responding to with confidence.

Steve Kretschmer - Executive Director

Cimigo conducted a large, nationally representative demand forecasting study in Vietnam for us, including a discreet choice component, to assess demand for potential new male contraceptives in development to support funding decisions by The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The research was additionally complex by linking interviews with men and separate interviews with their female partners. The Cimigo team was professional, knowledgeable and adaptive through the process of understanding our needs and collaborating to find solutions that would work, resulting in a very successful study.

York Spencer - Global Marketing Director

I've had the pleasure to work with Richard and Cimigo over many years and across multiple markets. Cimigo was a key partner in our business decision making process including market entry strategy, brand positioning development, shopper insights, brand equity tracking, and consumer need state segmentation development. The Cimigo team are local market experts who understand consumer culture like no other. I would highly recommend them.

Mai Trang - Brand Manager of Romano

Cimigo is the research agency that I appreciate for their expertise and customer service. Cimigo understand well the business context for each of project hence they can design the research to best fit with the objectives. The optimization on methodologies, sample size and questionnaire bring the value to the projects I have worked with them. Cimigo can go beyond data and give me valuable insights for each of research projects based on their knowledge and experience with the industry. All of these support me well to navigate the brand strategy in short term and long term.

Hanh Dang - Product Marketing Manager

We partnered with Cimigo on assessing TET campaign launch focusing on improving booking through our platform. Cimigo, provided its customized campaign evaluation technique based on Cimigo Online Communities that fully meets our requirement in terms of type of respondents and expected timelines. The report provided insightful findings with benchmarks to identify the next course of action for launching the campaign. We will recommend Cimigo team and its Online communities for its quality reporting and scale of coverage.

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Cido have worked with Cimigo in Vietnam for more than 10 years. All our projects, both qualitative and quantitative, have been delivered in a timely manner with a high standard of quality throughout. Cimigo’s client service team has provided great support over the years which has ensured smooth project execution and helped us to deliver work on time and exceed our client’s expectations.

Chris Elkin - Founder

I have partnered with Cimigo over the past 15 years. Most recently Cimigo engaged us to collaborate on an unusually tough new product development project, which was akin to selling ice to Eskimos. Cimigo bought alive the consumer, her shopping journey, her cooking rituals and potential brand promises. Cimigo inspired our creative team to build alternate brand propositions and accompanying package designs. Cimigo then went back to consumers to evaluate, iterate and optimise these in focus groups. The Doodle team were able to observe this process and subtly adjust the expression of the brand between focus groups. The result of this great collaboration was a winning brand proposition and packaging design that hit consumer needs head on whilst appealing to their hearts.

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We have worked together with Cimigo many times. The findings from Cimigo are factual, accurate & reliable. They deliver value from the voice of our customer so we can easily determine the next step. Working with Cimigo feels like not only building a partnership but a sense of family. Very amazing to work with Cimigo, they always go beyond our expectations.

Matt Thwaites - Commercial Director

Cimigo designed a customer experience programme for Coats that reached into Vietnamese, Chinese and Korean customers across various levels of seniority. Cimigo instilled the importance of the voice of the customer within our executive committee. This led to fundamental changes in our structure, services and speed to market. Significant investments were made behind these improvement programmes, for example in reducing delivery times and in managing specialised custom orders, which in turn have led to improved revenue streams and higher margin sales.

Dr. Jean-Marcel Guillon - Chief Executive Officer

Cimigo have built and managed both our employee and customer experience programme since 2012. We have a complex suite of services with in-patient, out-patient, surgical, diagnostic, consultative and facilities to account for, all amongst patients who are naturally sensitive regarding their privacy and experience. Yet Cimigo have designed a system to measure customer experience across multiple languages and cultures and direct us in improving this experience. Our net promoter score (NPS) has grown as a direct result of changes implemented based on this direction and continuously listening to patient feedback. The NPS growth correlates directly to new patient numbers and improved profitability, as happier customers drives our business growth.

Rick Reid - Creative Director

As a creative director I have used the services of Cimigo for the past 15 years when developing communications, so I know their style, innovations and resources well. Most recently we tested copy for print, out of home and digital communications to put an Australian colloquialism into a Vietnamese context. A job and budget so small I felt it was highly likely to fall through the cracks. I was astounded at their incredible response. From their advice and style of how we should present the stimulus material, to their cross-reference manoeuvres used in the testing. Their over-delivering response, was to an embarrassing level. We walked away with a clear winner and could present back to our client with confidence and clarity. Cimigo made us look great. Plus they even threw in a few extra insights on the awareness and perception of the product in Vietnam.

Private English Language Schools - Chief Executive Officer

Our relationship with Cimigo goes back many years. We engaged Cimigo to provide an independent view on what our customers and potential customers think of our company. The insights from Cimigo were very helpful for us to better understand the Vietnam market and also in developing our brand manifesto.

Chad Ovel - Partner

Cimigo digs deep to understand the key issues we need to address. Then, they quickly customize a highly suitable research approach to provide us the insights we need to achieve our breakthrough business targets. From tough questions to aha answers in just a few easy conversations!

Thuy Le - Consumer Insight Manager

Pharmacity started a Brand Health Check with Cimigo in 2020 and we were immediately impressed with their great consultancy and supportive spirit. The study had interesting analysis and insights which helped us efficiently shape the marketing plan and direction moving forward. We are now working with Cimigo on a tracking basis to continuously monitor and foster our brand performance.

Kelly Vo - Founder & Host

I respect Cimigo not only because of their dedication, meticulousness, and high-quality services but also how much they care about the local community here. I proposed the idea of doing a survey with the digital young generation on the topic of social impact and leadership. I wanted to identify, shape, and develop our content so that could really speak to the heart of the problems and empower young Vietnamese to take action on social impact in Vietnam. The Cimigo team agreed pro-bono to help without hesitation. The research findings are truly helpful in providing us a deeper understanding of our targeted audiences, what they need and are concerned about in life. The results show us how we can help them to achieve their goals and dreams. It is no longer a shot in the dark!

Hamish Glendinning - Business Lead

Cimigo not only delivered an exceptional piece of qualitative research for us, but provided hugely valuable direction when it came to product development and market positioning which we have since implemented. We can’t wait to work with the team again.

Ha Dinh - Project Lead

I have worked with CIMIGO on educational research for over 4 months. This is extremely impressive to me by the way CIMIGO approaches, cooperating and supporting me during the research launched. Specifically, the design for both qualitative and quantitative research are practical and logical with accurate questionnaires and appropriate interviews methodology for different respondents. Moreover, the outcomes of this research helps us to recognize our opportunities in the current English Language Training Market and understand profoundly our customer needs, behaviours and expectations when sending their children to us.

Richard Willis - Director

When we were looking to develop one of the worlds the leading economic indicator in Vietnam, the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) Cimigo showed an immediate understanding of our needs and showed their understanding of the Vietnamese market. IHS Markit has now been working with Cimigo since 2013. Every month Cimigo continues to provide high quality data, a representative panel, on time data and great customer service. We look forward to many more years of working together.

Aashish Kapoor - Head of Marketing

Cimigo - The best “Glocal” market research firm in Vietnam with whom we have developed a great partnership since many years. While the quality of research and findings are of top standard, the added advantage being the local insights that Richard and his team are able to provide in helping us make important decisions.

Thu Phung - CTI Manager

Cimigo is not the type of agency that "fill in the template", but it's customized as per the needs and expectations of Client. Cimigo makes research interesting by applying new approaches to address the business issue, for example, it's known by default that product test is CLT, but at Cimigo, we did group debate for deeper understandings and insights and that resulted as a winning product which is selling well in the market. Last but not least, Cimigo makes me understand that research is a journey, not just a project."

Tania Desela - Senior Product Manager

It was a pleasure working with Cimigo. Their expertise in consumer and market research was a significant benefit as they assisted our organization in understanding our market position in more detail and validating our hypothesis in go-to-market strategy. We were more than happy with the findings and would definitely recommend them.

Dennis Kurnia - Head of Consumer Insights

Over the last 5 years I have worked with Cimigo on a wide array of projects, ranging from market segmentation to product testing. At all times, I found them to be swift in response and providing high quality insights and business recommendations applicable to our business. Furthermore, I am satisfied with their fieldwork quality despite the crunched timeline that we had in some projects. Overall, I highly recommend Cimigo for their professionalism.

Aimee Shear - Senior Research Executive

We partnered up with the Cimigo team on what was a particularly challenging project – we were faced with numerous timeline delays and logistical concerns – yet the team were incredibly accommodating through their patience, flexibility and commitment. Not only were the team supportive during the set up of our project, but we were really impressed by the outputs delivered – they were insightful, rich and very comprehensive. Cimigo were brilliant partners to work with and we look forward to working with them again.

Louise Knox - Consumer Technical Insights

Just to say a huge thank you for all of the film footage. We are absolutely delighted with it all. The Vox Pops are really interesting and have turned out very well – those ladies were great at talking spontaneously. You did a great job. Thank you for your patience and perseverance with getting this off the ground.

Vo Thi Thuy Ha - Commercial Effectiveness

Working with Cimigo, we can see the dedication, good business sense, and great client service from the Cimigo client service team. Cimigo's team always demonstrates a high standard of client service with high flexibility, trying to offer the most suitable options for clients, although sometimes it is quite a stretch. Cimigo often offers very interesting approaches to solving our research objectives. I appreciate that the team can go the extra mile, trying to find good methodology and insightful findings to answer MSD's business questions.

Geert Heestermans - Marketing Director

Cimigo is and will be our strategic research agency. We are happy with your work and the way our projects are handled. You walked the extra mile and we are grateful for that Cimigo is and will be our strategic research agency. We are happy with your work and the way our projects are handled. You walked the extra mile and we are grateful for that

Linda Yeoh - CMI Manager

We have worked with Cimigo over 2 projects in Vietnam. Thuong and her team has proven to be reliable being on top of the projects, managing different stakeholders and business objectives. They are flexible in terms of ways of working and are able to cope with last minute changes. The research findings (Quant + Qual) have helped us understand Vietnamese in a deeper level, allowing us to make clear decisions to be successful in the market. Thank you Thuong, Nhu Tran and team for supporting us.

Đội ngũ

Đội ngũ Cimigo tại Việt Nam sẵn sàng giúp bạn đưa ra những sự lựa chọn tốt hơn.

Giải pháp

Cimigo cung cấp các giải pháp nghiên cứu thị trường tại Việt Nam sẽ giúp bạn có những lựa chọn tốt hơn.

Xu hướng

Cimigo cung cấp các xu hướng tiếp thị của người tiêu dùng Việt Nam và nghiên cứu thị trường về phân khúc người tiêu dùng Việt Nam.

Báo cáo

Cimigo cung cấp các báo cáo nghiên cứu thị trường về các lĩnh vực thị trường và phân khúc người tiêu dùng tại Việt Nam.