PMI Việt Nam tháng 7/2026: Đà tăng trưởng cải thiện trong tháng 7 khi áp lực lạm phát giảm

Sản lượng, đơn hàng mới và đơn hàng xuất khẩu tăng nhanh hơn.
Việc làm tăng, trong khi các doanh nghiệp đẩy mạnh hoạt động mua sắm đầu vào.
Áp lực lạm phát tiếp tục hạ nhiệt.

Cimigo Vietnam market research đã thu thập chỉ số PMI Việt Nam – chỉ số nhà quản lý mua hàng ngành sản xuất từ năm 2013. S&P Global biên soạn chỉ số Vietnam PMI S&P Global từ các phản hồi của bảng câu hỏi hàng tháng gửi đến các nhà quản lý mua hàng trong một nhóm khoảng 400 nhà sản xuất.

Kết quả PMI Việt Nam

Dữ liệu tháng 7 cho thấy đà tăng trưởng của lĩnh vực sản xuất Việt Nam đang được củng cố. Sản lượng, đơn hàng mới, xuất khẩu và hoạt động mua vào đều tăng mạnh hơn, trong khi việc làm tăng lần đầu tiên trong 5 tháng. Các doanh nghiệp được hỗ trợ bởi áp lực lạm phát tiếp tục giảm, với chi phí đầu vào và giá đầu ra đều tăng ở tốc độ chậm nhất trong 10 tháng. Tình trạng chậm trễ trong chuỗi cung ứng cũng ít rõ rệt hơn.

Chỉ số Nhà quản trị Mua hàng ngành Sản xuất Việt Nam S&P Global™ (PMI®) tăng lên 52,9 trong tháng 7, từ mức 51,8 trong tháng 6, cho thấy sức khỏe của lĩnh vực này được cải thiện đáng kể theo tháng. Điều kiện kinh doanh hiện đã cải thiện trong 13 tháng liên tiếp, với mức cải thiện mới nhất rõ rệt nhất kể từ tháng 2.

Sản lượng sản xuất tăng mạnh trong tháng 7, với tốc độ mở rộng nhanh hơn và đạt mức cao nhất trong 5 tháng. Sản lượng hiện đã tăng liên tục theo tháng kể từ tháng 5/2025. Các doanh nghiệp thường cho rằng sản lượng tăng cao có liên quan đến sự gia tăng của các đơn hàng mới. Hoạt động kinh doanh mới tăng tháng thứ ba liên tiếp trong tháng 7 và với tốc độ nhanh hơn tháng 6. Tổng doanh số bán hàng mới được hỗ trợ bởi mức tăng mạnh của các đơn hàng xuất khẩu mới, với tốc độ tăng nhanh nhất kể từ tháng 7/2024.

Các bằng chứng thực tế cho thấy bức tranh tăng trưởng được cải thiện trong lĩnh vực này một phần phản ánh áp lực lạm phát đang giảm. Mặc dù những người trả lời khảo sát tiếp tục ghi nhận giá vận chuyển tăng, và một số doanh nghiệp đề cập đến việc chi phí nhiên liệu và dầu tiếp tục tăng, nhưng việc giá dầu gần đây giảm đã giúp các doanh nghiệp khác tiết kiệm chi phí. Kết quả là cả chi phí đầu vào và giá đầu ra đều tăng với tốc độ chậm nhất kể từ tháng 9/2025.

Tình trạng gián đoạn chuỗi cung ứng cũng tiếp tục giảm trong tháng 7, với thời gian giao hàng của các nhà cung cấp kéo dài ở mức ít đáng kể nhất kể từ tháng 5/2025. Trong những trường hợp thời gian giao hàng tăng, các thành viên tham gia khảo sát cho rằng nguyên nhân là do thiếu hụt hàng hóa và vấn đề vận chuyển.

Xu hướng PMI tháng 7

Trong khi đó, các nhà sản xuất đã đẩy mạnh hoạt động mua vào trong tháng 7, với tốc độ mở rộng mạnh nhất trong gần bốn năm rưỡi. Theo những người trả lời khảo sát, mức tăng trong việc mua nguyên vật liệu đầu vào chủ yếu phản ánh yêu cầu sản xuất cao hơn, mặc dù một số doanh nghiệp đã mua hàng để sử dụng trong tương lai.

Khi các nguyên vật liệu đầu vào được sử dụng để hỗ trợ sản xuất tăng mạnh, lượng tồn kho đầu vào tiếp tục giảm đáng kể. Tồn kho thành phẩm cũng giảm khi sản phẩm được vận chuyển đến khách hàng để đáp ứng các yêu cầu về đơn hàng. Các nhà sản xuất cũng ứng phó với khối lượng công việc lớn hơn bằng cách tuyển thêm nhân sự, lần đầu tiên tình trạng này xảy ra trong 5 tháng. Tuy nhiên, tốc độ tạo việc làm chưa đủ để ngăn lượng công việc tồn đọng tăng lên trong bối cảnh đơn hàng mới tăng mạnh.

Kỳ vọng rằng các đơn hàng mới sẽ tiếp tục tăng và kế hoạch mở rộng công suất sản xuất là một trong những yếu tố hỗ trợ niềm tin vào triển vọng sản lượng trong 12 tháng tới vào tháng 7. Tâm lý tăng lên mức cao nhất trong 5 tháng, nhưng vẫn thấp hơn đáng kể so với mức trước khi chiến tranh bùng nổ ở Trung Đông, khi một số thành viên tham gia khảo sát nhấn mạnh khả năng các vấn đề địa chính trị có thể hạn chế tăng trưởng.

Tải báo cáo tại đây

PMI® Ngành Sản xuất Việt Nam của S&P Global được S&P Global thu thập từ phần trả lời cho các câu hỏi gửi cho các nhà quản trị mua hàng trong một nhóm gồm khoảng 400 nhà sản xuất. Nhóm khảo sát được phân chia theo ngành và quy mô lao động của công ty, dựa trên đóng góp vào GDP.

Những câu trả lời khảo sát được Cimigo Việt Nam thu thập vào nửa cuối của mỗi tháng và cho biết chiều hướng thay đổi so với tháng trước. Một chỉ số khuếch tán được tính toán cho mỗi tham số khảo sát. Chỉ số là tổng cộng phần trăm số câu trả lời ‘cao hơn’ và một nửa tỷ lệ phần trăm các câu trả lời ‘không thay đổi’.

Các chỉ số có giá trị từ 0 đến 100, với một kết quả trên 50 thể hiện một mức tăng tổng thể so với tháng trước, và dưới 50 thể hiện một mức giảm tổng thể. Các chỉ số sau đó được điều chỉnh theo mùa.

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Trong vai trò Giám đốc Marketing kiêm chuyên gia nghiên cứu thị trường và cố vấn chiến lược Marketing trên các thị trường quốc tế, tôi đã làm việc với rất nhiều đơn vị nghiên cúu thị trường rất chuyên nghiệp và hiệu quả từ Global đến Local.

Cimigo là một trong số đó, team Cimigo chuyên nghiệp cao, nhiệt tình và hiệu quả, từ thiết kế nghiên cứu, thực địa đến phân tích insight – tất cả đều được thực hiện chỉn chu, đúng hạn và cực kỳ sát với nhu cầu business. Đây là một đội ngũ tuyệt vời mà tôi luôn sẵn sàng recommend cho các đối tác của tôi...

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The team at Cimigo are my favourite researchers in South East Asia. They’ve proved adept at tackling the most private and complex personal issues at qualitative research level, not flinching when the client endlessly chopped and changed fieldwork timing, or ramped up the workload without warning. They have recruited the most extraordinarily niche consumers without pause or complaint. Their patience with clients and their flexibility and hard work that went above and beyond what was initially asked of them on two projects relating to sexual behaviour means there is now no other research company we would choose to work with in that part of Asia. The fact they also pulled off a third project for us so well, on men’s relationship with beer and beer advertising, shows they have breadth of expertise— we still quote from the report they produced.

If only all our research partners were as switched on and easy to work with.

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Private English Language Schools - Chief Executive Officer

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I have worked with CIMIGO on educational research for over 4 months. This is extremely impressive to me by the way CIMIGO approaches, cooperating and supporting me during the research launched. Specifically, the design for both qualitative and quantitative research are practical and logical with accurate questionnaires and appropriate interviews methodology for different respondents. Moreover, the outcomes of this research helps us to recognize our opportunities in the current English Language Training Market and understand profoundly our customer needs, behaviours and expectations when sending their children to us.

Richard Willis - Director

When we were looking to develop one of the worlds the leading economic indicator in Vietnam, the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) Cimigo showed an immediate understanding of our needs and showed their understanding of the Vietnamese market. IHS Markit has now been working with Cimigo since 2013. Every month Cimigo continues to provide high quality data, a representative panel, on time data and great customer service. We look forward to many more years of working together.

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Just to say a huge thank you for all of the film footage. We are absolutely delighted with it all. The Vox Pops are really interesting and have turned out very well – those ladies were great at talking spontaneously. You did a great job. Thank you for your patience and perseverance with getting this off the ground.

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Working with Cimigo, we can see the dedication, good business sense, and great client service from the Cimigo client service team. Cimigo's team always demonstrates a high standard of client service with high flexibility, trying to offer the most suitable options for clients, although sometimes it is quite a stretch. Cimigo often offers very interesting approaches to solving our research objectives. I appreciate that the team can go the extra mile, trying to find good methodology and insightful findings to answer MSD's business questions.

Geert Heestermans - Marketing Director

Cimigo is and will be our strategic research agency. We are happy with your work and the way our projects are handled. You walked the extra mile and we are grateful for that Cimigo is and will be our strategic research agency. We are happy with your work and the way our projects are handled. You walked the extra mile and we are grateful for that

Linda Yeoh - CMI Manager

We have worked with Cimigo over 2 projects in Vietnam. Thuong and her team has proven to be reliable being on top of the projects, managing different stakeholders and business objectives. They are flexible in terms of ways of working and are able to cope with last minute changes. The research findings (Quant + Qual) have helped us understand Vietnamese in a deeper level, allowing us to make clear decisions to be successful in the market. Thank you Thuong, Nhu Tran and team for supporting us.

Đội ngũ

Đội ngũ Cimigo tại Việt Nam sẵn sàng giúp bạn đưa ra những sự lựa chọn tốt hơn.

Giải pháp

Cimigo cung cấp các giải pháp nghiên cứu thị trường tại Việt Nam sẽ giúp bạn có những lựa chọn tốt hơn.

Xu hướng

Cimigo cung cấp các xu hướng tiếp thị của người tiêu dùng Việt Nam và nghiên cứu thị trường về phân khúc người tiêu dùng Việt Nam.

Báo cáo

Cimigo cung cấp các báo cáo nghiên cứu thị trường về các lĩnh vực thị trường và phân khúc người tiêu dùng tại Việt Nam.