Vietnam Q1 2026 economic outlook
May 11, 2026
Vietnam Q1 2026 economic outlook: strong growth, rising pressure, falling confidence Vietnam Q1
Vietnam Q1 2026 economic outlook
Vietnam Q1 2026 economic outlook. Vietnam entered 2026 with strong headline growth, but underlying pressures are building rapidly. GDP expanded by 7.8% in Q1, supported by solid industrial production (+9.0%), retail growth (+10.1%), and strong export performance (+20% YoY). Tourism also continued to recover, with international arrivals up 12%. The manufacturing PMI remained in expansion at 51.2.
Tet 2026 highlights an important shift in Vietnam’s consumer economy. Using a comparable December to February period, retail and services sales reached approximately VND 1.86 trillion, with retail goods growth recovering to 8% year on year. More notably, services and experience-led spending continued to accelerate, reinforcing a structural reallocation of consumer expenditure away from goods and toward travel, leisure, and convenience.

This pattern is consistent with broader consumer trends. Vietnamese consumers are not reducing spend overall, but are becoming more selective, value-driven, and experience-oriented. Growth is increasingly driven by services rather than traditional retail, reflecting a maturing market where consumption is shifting from ownership to usage.
On the surface, momentum remains intact. However, several indicators point to rising strain. Imports are growing faster than exports (+27% vs +20%), signalling increasing input demand and cost pressure. Inflation is beginning to edge higher, while logistics and operating costs continue to rise.

More critically, business sentiment has deteriorated sharply. CEO confidence has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, signalling growing concern about the outlook despite a solid Q1 performance.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are now directly impacting Vietnamese businesses.
The latest S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI highlights a sharp acceleration in input cost inflation, driven by rising energy prices and supply chain disruption. Firms are already passing these costs through, with selling prices increasing at the fastest rate in 15 years.
This reflects a rapid transmission from global conflict to domestic inflation. Despite government efforts to reduce fuel prices, since February 2026, RON 95 petrol is up 22% and diesel by 43%, according to the Shiv. Higher fuel costs are feeding into logistics, raising prices across the economy and putting pressure on margins. As inflation builds, consumer purchasing power is likely to weaken, increasing the risk of slower demand in the months ahead.
Cimigo’s Vietnam GDP growth forecast for 2026 has therefore been revised down from 8.6% to 7.2%. The key risk is that sustained cost pressure and weakening sentiment erode momentum through the remainder of the year.
The key question: how long can strong current performance hold if sentiment continues to weaken?
If you have any questions or specific needs, please get in touch with us at ask@cimigo.com.
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As a Marketing Director and Market Research Expert Advisor across international markets, I have collaborated with numerous market research agencies, both global and local, that operate with a high level of professionalism and effectiveness. Cimigo is among the most outstanding. The Cimigo team demonstrates exceptional professionalism, strong commitment, and operational excellence. From research design and fieldwork execution to insight analysis, all stages are conducted rigorously, delivered on schedule, and closely aligned with business objectives. This is a highly capable team that I would confidently recommend to my partners and stakeholders.
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The team at Cimigo are my favourite researchers in South East Asia. They’ve proved adept at tackling the most private and complex personal issues at qualitative research level, not flinching when the client endlessly chopped and changed fieldwork timing, or ramped up the workload without warning. They have recruited the most extraordinarily niche consumers without pause or complaint. Their patience with clients and their flexibility and hard work that went above and beyond what was initially asked of them on two projects relating to sexual behaviour means there is now no other research company we would choose to work with in that part of Asia. The fact they also pulled off a third project for us so well, on men’s relationship with beer and beer advertising, shows they have breadth of expertise— we still quote from the report they produced.
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