El Niño is intensifying. How will El Niño disrupt consumer demand in Indonesia and Vietnam?

Cimigo expects that El Niño will disrupt consumer demand in Indonesia and Vietnam. El Niño describes a period when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. This changes the movement of heat, moisture and winds through the atmosphere, which can alter weather patterns around the world. For Indonesia and Vietnam, El Niño brings hotter, drier conditions than usual.

As of 22 August 2026, a very strong El Niño is developing across the tropical Pacific, and businesses in Indonesia and Vietnam should begin preparing for its potential disruption. The climate signal is already clear. What happens next is not.

• In Indonesia, very strong El Niño conditions coincide with an already widespread dry season, creating more immediate concerns around drought, agriculture, water availability and forest and land fires.
• In Vietnam, El Niño is also established and forecast to remain strong to very strong into early 2027. Some of the more significant commercial consequences could emerge later as agricultural stress, commodity costs and pressure on household expenditure build.

The El Niño climate event could therefore create two different commercial timelines across two of ASEAN’s most important consumer markets. Indonesia and Vietnam together represent around 56% of ASEAN’s population and 47% of its economic output. What happens to food prices, household spending, and consumer demand in these two markets, therefore, matters well beyond their borders. For businesses, the potential transmission extends far beyond the weather:

Not every step in that chain will necessarily occur. The severity will depend on rainfall, geography, crop conditions, water management, inventories, government intervention and global commodity markets. That is why El Niño should be treated as a scenario to prepare for and monitor, rather than a prediction of inevitable disruption.

The warning signals are already unusually strong

The 2015–16 experience demonstrates the impact of a severe El Niño.  2026–27 will not follow the same path. This is a warning, not a prediction of disaster, so you may plan for and build risk scenarios.  Now is the time to establish what to monitor.

• Indonesia provides the more immediate warning. BMKG reported that the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly reached +2.77°C during the first ten days of August 2026, which it classifies as a very strong El Niño. Niño 3.4 is a common monitoring region in the equatorial Pacific, approximately 5°N–5°S and 170°W–120°W, whose sea-surface temperatures are closely monitored because they are a key indicator of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Dry conditions are already widespread, during the same period, 91% of Indonesia recorded low rainfall, while rainfall across 87% of the country was below normal. Meteorological drought warnings extended across parts of Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua. This does not mean every affected area will experience severe economic disruption. But it means Indonesia is no longer dealing solely with a future climate forecast. The physical conditions worth monitoring are already present.

• Vietnam is exposed to the same El Niño event, but potentially on a different commercial timeline. Vietnam’s National Centre for Hydrometeorological Forecasting reported a Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly of +1.8°C during the second week of August. It forecasts a 93% probability of very strong El Niño conditions during September to November, rising to 95% during October to December. El Niño is expected to remain strong to very strong into December 2026 to February 2027. Vietnam could therefore face a prolonged event whose agricultural, water and consumer consequences extend well into 2027.

The difference between Indonesia and Vietnam is in how the same Pacific climate signal interacts with each country’s seasons, geography, agricultural systems and consumer economy.

What disruptions happened during the severe 2015–16 El Niño?

The last severe El Niño provides useful context, but not a template for what will happen this time. The 2015–16 El Niño was among the strongest events of the modern observational period. Across Southeast Asia, it contributed to unusually hot and dry conditions, but the economic consequences differed substantially between countries. The severe El Niño contributed to major agricultural and water disruptions in Vietnam, while Indonesia experienced additional economic consequences from widespread fires and haze.

• Indonesia experienced a particularly damaging combination of drought, forest and peat fires and severe haze. The World Bank estimated that Indonesia’s 2015 fires resulted in approximately US$16.1 billion in damage and economic losses, equivalent to around 1.9% of GDP at the time. The effects extended well beyond agriculture and forestry into transportation, manufacturing, trade and tourism. Tourism alone was estimated to have lost IDR 5.5 trillion in revenue due to fires and haze.

• Vietnam experienced one of its most severe droughts in decades. Reduced rainfall and water availability combined with saltwater intrusion, particularly in the Mekong Delta, Central Highlands and South Central Coast. Rice production was affected, while research following the drought documented substantial damage to coffee, coconut, pepper, cashew and fruit crops in affected areas. Some perennial crops created a particularly difficult problem. Once plantations are severely damaged, recovery can take several years rather than a single growing season.

The 2026–27 event does not have to repeat that experience. Fire prevention, water management, crop conditions, commodity inventories, and government responses differ. El Niño events themselves also differ in strength, duration and geographic effects. The lesson from 2015–16 is therefore not that history will repeat itself. It is that the consequences can travel surprisingly far beyond the weather.

One El Niño, two different disruptions to consumer demand

El Niño will disrupt consumer demand differently across Indonesia and Vietnam; the risks will strike on different timelines in each country. Regional companies should therefore avoid using one ASEAN El Niño scenario for both markets.

El Niño will disrupt agriculture first

Agriculture sits closest to the climate shock. Higher temperatures increase crop water requirements precisely when rainfall and irrigation availability may decline. But the crops and regions exposed differ.

In Vietnam, rice production in the Mekong Delta faces the combined challenges of freshwater availability and saltwater intrusion. Coffee, pepper and other perennial crops in the Central Highlands are vulnerable to prolonged water stress. Aquaculture can also be affected through changes in water temperature, salinity and water quality.

Indonesia has a different agricultural structure and much broader geographic exposure. Rice is critical for domestic food security and household expenditure. Palm oil connects Indonesian weather conditions to global food, consumer goods and oleochemical supply chains. Coffee and cocoa create additional domestic and export exposure.

The first commercial signal may not necessarily be a dramatic fall in national production. There may be greater variability in availability, quality, timing and price. For procurement teams, those signals can matter long before annual production statistics are available.

Palm oil makes Indonesia a global El Niño disruption story

Palm oil deserves particular attention because Indonesia’s exposure works in two directions. Indonesia is the world’s largest palm oil producer. Weather stress can therefore affect plantations, rural incomes, processors, exports and eventually international commodity markets. But Indonesia is also a major downstream processor. Palm and palm kernel feedstocks are processed into oleochemicals, including fatty acids, fatty alcohols, glycerine, and soap noodles. These, in turn, are used in detergents, soaps, cosmetics, personal care, food, and numerous industrial applications. This creates a much longer potential transmission chain:

The timing is important. Effects on oil palm yields can lag the original period of drought. That means weather conditions in late 2026 could become an ingredient cost issue in 2027. Indonesia would experience that risk as producer, processor, exporter and consumer.

Vietnam is much more exposed as a buyer and manufacturer using palm-derived inputs. The same commodity shock could therefore have substantially different commercial consequences in the two countries.

El Niño will disrupt food manufacturers, creating a margin squeeze

Food manufacturers may experience El Niño through several channels simultaneously. Agricultural ingredients can become more volatile. Water availability may become operationally important in some locations. Electricity and refrigeration requirements will rise during periods of extreme heat. Agricultural and energy costs can also flow indirectly into processing, packaging and logistics. This creates the familiar choice between absorbing higher costs and sacrificing margin, or passing costs to consumers and risking weaker demand.

But companies should avoid waiting for a general inflation measure to signal a problem. A dairy producer, bakery, confectionery manufacturer, coffee business and instant noodle producer can experience completely different versions of the same El Niño. Commercial risk scenarios need to establish which inputs your business is exposed to, where they are produced, when disruption would reach your costs, and how much pricing power you will have if it does.

El Niño will disrupt consumer demand with food inflation

Food prices are an important channel of transmission because they affect households frequently and visibly. El Niño will disrupt consumer demand in both Indonesia and Vietnam as they are likely to have less discretionary income after paying for essentials. These disruptions will arrive at different times and through different routes.

• Bank Indonesia is already treating El Niño-related weather disruption as a forward risk to food prices. It has identified measures to anticipate the effects of inflation as part of its inflation response.  That is not evidence that El Niño has already caused a surge in Indonesian inflation. The warning is about risk, not an inflation outcome that has already happened.
• Vietnam’s transmission could take a different path. Domestic agricultural disruption could affect food supply, while globally traded agricultural commodities create another potential source of pressure. Prolonged heat can also increase household electricity consumption.

El Niño will disrupt beverage demand, temporary growth, whilst margins deteriorate

Hot weather can create more consumption occasions for bottled water, carbonated soft drinks, hydration products, RTD tea, RTD coffee and other cold beverages. That creates potential volume opportunities in both Indonesia and Vietnam. Manufacturers will likely face pressure from pricing volatility in sugar, coffee, fruit, water, electricity, and refrigeration. Revenue may well increase while margins deteriorate. There is also an important measurement issue for marketers. If a beverage category grows because the weather is exceptionally hot, stronger sales do not necessarily demonstrate stronger brand equity or sustainable consumer momentum. Brands evaluating 2026 and 2027 performance should consider separating weather-driven category growth from genuine brand growth.

El Niño will disrupt demand for personal and household care, creating the same contradiction

The same climate event could increase category usage while simultaneously increasing manufacturing costs.

Prolonged heat can change personal care needs and usage occasions. Consumers may shower more frequently. Body cleansing, deodorant, scalp care, oil control, sweat management and sun protection can become more salient. But these effects should not be assumed to be identical in Indonesia and Vietnam. Climate, consumer routines, category development and cultural practices all influence how changing weather translates into behaviour.

Meanwhile, supply-side pressure can move in the opposite direction. Indonesia’s oleochemical industry demonstrates how closely palm oil is connected with everyday consumer products. Palm-derived fatty acids are used in soaps and detergents, fatty alcohols in detergents and cosmetics, and glycerine across cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and food. For Indonesian manufacturers, the potential exposure therefore extends from the plantation to the finished product. For Vietnamese manufacturers, the more important issue is likely to be the cost and availability of imported palm-derived ingredients.

Indonesia faces further disruption to consumer demand: fire and haze

Forest and peat fires make Indonesia’s exposure fundamentally different from Vietnam’s. Dry conditions increase fire risk. Severe fire seasons can then create haze and deteriorating air quality across affected areas. That introduces another potential consumer pathway:

The consequences can reach categories with no obvious agricultural connection. Consumers may spend less time outdoors. Delivery can become more attractive. Indoor and air-conditioned retail and leisure environments may gain appeal. Demand for masks, air filtration and selected health-related products may increase. But these are scenarios to investigate, not behaviours to assume. For consumer researchers, the important question is not simply whether people are worried about haze. It is what they actually do differently because of it.

El Niño will disrupt travel and tourism demand

Tourism deserves particular attention because weather conditions can affect both destination choice and behaviour once travellers arrive. The risks differ between Indonesia and Vietnam.

Indonesia: fires and haze create the greater downside risk

If severe drought contributes to a significant forest and peat fire season, haze can reduce visibility, disrupt aviation and other transport, discourage outdoor activities and affect destination perceptions. The 2015 experience demonstrates that this can become economically material. The World Bank estimated IDR 5.5 trillion in tourism revenue losses in Indonesia associated with fires and haze.

The impact would not necessarily be uniform. Destinations distant from fire and haze areas could experience little direct disruption, while others could be affected through air quality, flight networks or negative destination perceptions. National tourism numbers could therefore conceal substantial local differences.

Vietnam: heat could change the visitor experience

Vietnam faces a different tourism exposure. Extreme heat does not necessarily stop people from travelling, particularly when trips have already been booked. But it can change what visitors do, when they do it and where they spend their time. Sightseeing can shift towards mornings and evenings. Air-conditioned transport, restaurants, shopping centres and indoor attractions may become more attractive. Outdoor activities may lose appeal during the hottest parts of the day. Water availability is also more important in destinations where tourism creates substantial seasonal demand. Hotels, attractions, tour operators, restaurants and destination marketers may therefore need to adapt itineraries, operating hours, guest communications and services if extreme heat becomes prolonged.

Domestic versus inbound international travellers

Domestic travellers in Vietnam and Indonesia are familiar with their climates and may adapt by changing destinations, travel dates or activities. International visitors may respond differently, particularly when media coverage associates destinations with fires, haze or extreme weather.

Tourism businesses should therefore monitor more than arrivals. Destination searches, booking lead times, cancellations, flight disruption, length of stay and activity choices could provide earlier evidence that behaviour is changing.

El Niño will disrupt household budgets the most

A business need not be affected by an agricultural supply chain, but its consumers may have less money left to spend.

The most important consumer consequence will be the household budget. If agricultural disruption raises food costs while hotter conditions increase household electricity expenditure, consumers have less money available after paying for essentials. Agricultural households can face an additional problem if incomes weaken while living costs increase. Lower-income households are particularly exposed because essential expenditures absorb a larger share of their budgets. Consumers could respond by trading down, choosing smaller packs, becoming more promotion-sensitive, switching brands, postponing purchases, or reducing discretionary expenditure. This creates indirect exposure for beauty, apparel, restaurants, entertainment, tourism and other categories whose own production may have little direct connection with El Niño.

Not every category will lose from the El Niño disruption

El Niño can also create commercial opportunities. Hotter conditions can increase demand for bottled water, cold beverages, hydration products, ice cream, fans, air conditioners, cooling appliances, sun protection and selected personal care products. Indonesia could experience additional demand for indoor air quality products if haze becomes significant.

Consumer behaviour may change in subtler ways, too. People can change when they travel, where they shop, when they socialise and how frequently they use delivery. Weather can therefore alter consumption occasions as well as category demand. The commercial challenge is distinguishing a temporary weather-driven effect from a lasting change in consumer preference.

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