Vietnam 2021 economic performance Q3

Richard Burrage
Oct 04, 2021

Vietnam 2021 economic performance Q3. Saigon emerges in October from the lockdown that spanned much of Q2 and all of Q3. The social and economic trauma is evident in the Vietnam Q3 2021 economic performance.  It is felt deeply in job losses and economic progress.  Compared to Q3 2020 GDP grew only 1.4%, retails sales declined, FDI decreased and the trade surplus narrowed. The manufacturing industry was hit hard but services suffered even more. There is much to be done to reach Cimigo’s forecast of 3.9% GDP growth in Q4 2021.

Vietnam Q3 2021 economic performance


Learn more about the prospects for econmic recovery in Q4 here. Consumer spending will only return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels after 18 to 24 months. This pandemic will force a sharp drop in discretionary expenditure.  There will be GDP growth of approximately 2.4% in 2021. This is the lowest level since 1986 which recorded a 2.3% growth. It will be less than 2020 which recorded 2.9% and in sharp contrast to the 7.0% growth achieved in 2019.  Consumer dynamism and economic growth will rebound unabated by mid-2023.

The economic impact of Covid is unprecedented in peacetime, the impact in 2021 is a much harder impact than 2020.  Consumer confidence has hit new lows, businesses have faltered, jobs have been lost and incomes reduced.  Many sectors will remain distressed, especially tourism, the airline, leisure and hospitality industry.

Navigating Vietnam’s economic recovery post-Covid in 2021 and beyond will be far harder than experiences to date.  Cimigo estimates that 1.6 million jobs were lost in 2020 compared to 5.9 million lost in 2021.  Many employees and micro and SME business owners have lost significant levels of income through salary reduction and revenue declines respectively. Cimigo estimate that household incomes diminished by 12% in 2020 and forecast that they will diminish by 38% in 202


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