Indonesia’s economic outlook Q2 2025
Aug 19, 2025
As Indonesia approaches the end of Q3 2025, the economic outlook is being shaped significantly by
Indonesia’s economic outlook Q2 2025
As Indonesia approaches the end of Q3 2025, the economic outlook is being shaped significantly by various factors affecting consumer behaviour, retail sales, and sectoral growth. This article examines the economic environment, focusing on key indicators beyond GDP and providing a more nuanced view of the country’s economic situation from Cimigo‘s perspective.
Imports climbed to $60.2 billion, reflecting a 9.4% rise. This growth outpaced exports, affecting Indonesia’s trade balance, which performed poorly last year.
A detailed look at the GDP growth projections by sector shows that areas such as transportation and warehousing are set to lead in economic contributions. The agriculture and trade sectors are also expected to record gradual growth, strengthening their roles in driving the economy forward.
The manufacturing sector remains a focal point of Indonesia’s economy, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicating modest recovery at 49.2. This figure reflects the sector’s gradual rebound, although it grapples with the effects of previous contractions, signalling a complex recovery.
Consumer confidence, by contrast, shows growing concern. The Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to its lowest level in three years, indicating a notable drop in sentiment. This has implications for spending behaviour, as households display increasing caution in the face of economic uncertainty.
Retail performance data show year-to-date growth of 1.9% in real retail sales. This growth is driven primarily by essential sectors, particularly food, beverages, and tobacco. This highlights a shift towards necessary consumables as households adjust spending in response to economic pressures.
The overall retail environment is under scrutiny, particularly regarding consumer perceptions. A recent Cimigo survey in Q2 revealed that finding suitable employment remains challenging, with reported difficulties rising significantly compared with the previous year. This insecurity likely contributes to a more cautious approach to household spending.
Indonesia’s economy is entering a phase of moderation, characterised by softer domestic demand and a narrowing external trade buffer. In this environment, businesses must remain agile, balancing cost control with market diversification to withstand prevailing headwinds. Aligning production targets and inventory levels with slower consumer demand can help avoid excess stock and unnecessary capital tie-up, while increasing local sourcing can reduce currency risk from higher imports and strengthen operational stability.
Companies should emphasise affordability, durability, and essential features to appeal to cost-conscious consumers in an inflationary climate to maintain competitiveness. Streamlining processes, optimising input costs, and adopting automation can help safeguard margins despite subdued demand growth. Those able to combine disciplined cost management with a strategic response to shifting consumer priorities will be best placed to sustain performance in Indonesia’s evolving market landscape.
Looking for more insights on Indonesia? Explore other reports from Cimigo here.
Indonesia’s economic outlook Q2 2025
Aug 19, 2025
As Indonesia approaches the end of Q3 2025, the economic outlook is being shaped significantly by
Behind household appliances: understanding consumers’ preference and purchase
Aug 05, 2025
Electronic household appliances have continued to evolve over time in line with technological
TikTok vs. Shopee: Gen Z and Millennial e-commerce showdown
Aug 08, 2025
TikTok vs. Shopee: Gen Z and Millennial e-commerce showdown plays out in Vietnam’s US$8.5
Lisa Nguyen - Vietnam Marketing Lead
Mark Ratcliff - Managing Director
The team at Cimigo are my favourite researchers in South East Asia. They’ve proved adept at tackling the most private and complex personal issues at qualitative research level, not flinching when the client endlessly chopped and changed fieldwork timing, or ramped up the workload without warning. They have recruited the most extraordinarily niche consumers without pause or complaint. Their patience with clients and their flexibility and hard work that went above and beyond what was initially asked of them on two projects relating to sexual behaviour means there is now no other research company we would choose to work with in that part of Asia. The fact they also pulled off a third project for us so well, on men’s relationship with beer and beer advertising, shows they have breadth of expertise— we still quote from the report they produced.
The team at Cimigo are my favourite researchers in South East Asia. They’ve proved adept at tackling the most private and complex personal issues at qualitative research level, not flinching when the client endlessly chopped and changed fieldwork timing, or ramped up the workload without warning. They have recruited the most extraordinarily niche consumers without pause or complaint. Their patience with clients and their flexibility and hard work that went above and beyond what was initially asked of them on two projects relating to sexual behaviour means there is now no other research company we would choose to work with in that part of Asia. The fact they also pulled off a third project for us so well, on men’s relationship with beer and beer advertising, shows they have breadth of expertise— we still quote from the report they produced.
Kevin McQuillan - Chief Marketing Officer
Sam Houston - Chief Executive Officer
Minh Thu - Consumer Market Insights Manager
Travis Mitchell - Executive Director
Malcolm Farmer - Managing Director
Hy Vu - Head of Research Department
Joe Nelson - New Zealand Consulate General
Steve Kretschmer - Executive Director
York Spencer - Global Marketing Director
Laura Baines - Programmes Snr Manager
Mai Trang - Brand Manager of Romano
Hanh Dang - Product Marketing Manager
Luan Nguyen - Market Research Team Leader
Max Lee - Project Manager
Chris Elkin - Founder
Ronald Reagan - Deputy Group Head After Sales & CS Operation
Chad Ovel - Partner
Private English Language Schools - Chief Executive Officer
Rick Reid - Creative Director
Anya Nipper - Project Coordination Director
Dr. Jean-Marcel Guillon - Chief Executive Officer
Joyce - Pricing Manager
Matt Thwaites - Commercial Director
Aashish Kapoor - Head of Marketing
Kelly Vo - Founder & Host
Thanyachat Auttanukune - Board of Management
Hamish Glendinning - Business Lead
Thuy Le - Consumer Insight Manager
Richard Willis - Director
Ha Dinh - Project Lead
Geert Heestermans - Marketing Director
Vo Thi Thuy Ha - Commercial Effectiveness
Louise Knox - Consumer Technical Insights
Aimee Shear - Senior Research Executive
Dennis Kurnia - Head of Consumer Insights
Tania Desela - Senior Product Manager
Thu Phung - CTI Manager
Linda Yeoh - CMI Manager
Cimigo’s market research team in Vietnam and Indonesia love to help you make better choices.
Cimigo provides market research solutions in Vietnam and Indonesia that will help you make better choices.
Cimigo provides a range of consumer marketing trends and market research on market sectors and consumer segments in Vietnam and Indonesia.
Cimigo provides a range of free market research reports on market sectors and consumer segments in Vietnam and Indonesia.
Please enter the information for free download.
The report will be sent to your email.
When downloading our reports, you agree to be contacted for marketing purposes.
Please enter the information for free download.
The report will be sent to your email.
When downloading our reports, you agree to be contacted for marketing purposes.
Vui lòng điền thông tin vào biểu mẫu bên dưới để tải về báo cáo miễn phí.
Báo cáo sẽ được gửi vào email bạn điền ở bên dưới.
Khi tải xuống các báo cáo của chúng tôi, bạn đồng ý được liên hệ cho mục đích tiếp thị.
Xin cảm ơn. Một email kèm với đường dẫn tải báo cáo đã được gửi đến bạn.