Vietnam’s dash to high-income status by 2045 is credible but not guaranteed. The next decade will determine whether Vietnam can convert momentum-driven growth into productivity-led development.

This article is based on the Vietnam Consumer Trends 2026 report from Cimigo.

Vietnam’s path to high-income status by 2045 depends on two forces: what is working, and what is constraining growth.

What’s working:

• A strong growth track record (~6%+ GDP growth for a decade).
• Deep integration into global trade and manufacturing.
• Rising household affluence and a growing middle class.
• A policy agenda broadly aligned with productivity and reform.

What’s constraining growth:

• Demographics are a diminishing tailwind; ageing accelerates after the mid-2030s.
• Export-led growth is constrained by low domestic value capture.
• Domestic demand is cautious due to confidence, not income.
• Productivity growth, not scale, is now the decisive variable.

Vietnam remains attractive, but execution is harder. High-income status will be earned through productivity, value capture, and confidence, not solely through the speed of growth.

Vietnam’s dash to high-income status by 2045 will be decided by execution, not aspiration

Vietnam’s dash to high-income status by 2045 is no longer a distant vision. It is a concrete, time-bound strategic challenge that will be won or lost within the next decade. Moving GDP per capita from roughly US$4,900 today to around US$14,000 by 2045 implies not just continued growth, but a fundamental shift in how growth is generated, captured, and felt across the economy.

Vietnam has averaged ~6.1% GDP growth over the past decade. Sustaining anything close to this pace as the economy scales will be materially more challenging than achieving it at a lower base.

The question facing policymakers, investors, and business leaders is no longer whether Vietnam can grow. It is whether Vietnam can transition from momentum-driven growth to productivity-led, confidence-backed development before its structural tailwinds fade.

Vietnam is in a strong starting position, with finite time

Vietnam enters the 2045 race with genuine momentum. Its starting position is stronger than many peers at a similar income level, but the clock is already ticking.

Vietnam demographics and the 2045 high-income challenge

Vietnam’s demographic profile remains a powerful asset. The working-age population accounts for approximately 62% of the population in 2025, labour participation is high, and the dependency ratio is among the lowest in Asia. Female labour participation, at around 88% among ages 20–64, is exceptional by regional standards and materially boosts household income.

Vietnam’s low dependency ratio is providing a meaningful boost to GDP today, but this advantage peaks before the late 2030s.

Population ageing accelerates after 2036. As the over-50 cohort expands rapidly, demographics will shift from a growth accelerator to a growth constraint. Vietnam has less time than headline population figures suggest.

Vietnam’s proven growth track record is harder to sustain at scale

Vietnam has earned its growth credibility. GDP growth has averaged just over 6% over the past 10 years, placing Vietnam among Asia’s more consistent outperformers. GDP per capita reached approximately US$4,900 in 2025, reflecting both income growth and rapid urbanisation.

Sustaining high growth at low income is impressive. Sustaining it as the economy scales is a fundamentally different test.

As economies grow larger and more complex, maintaining momentum requires increasingly precise execution. Scale amplifies inefficiency as much as it amplifies opportunity.

Manufacturing, trade, and Vietnam’s path to high-income status

Manufacturing and exports have carried Vietnam far, but they will not carry it all the way to high-income status on their current terms.

Integration and sophistication

Manufacturing accounts for roughly 24% of GDP, underpinned by substantial foreign direct investment, expanding exports, and deep global integration. Vietnam has signed 16 free trade agreements, and its trade interconnectivity, imports plus exports as a share of GDP, stands at approximately 207%. Export growth reached around 17% in 2025.

Vietnam has become indispensable to global supply chains.

The value capture problem

Yet beneath the scale sits a structural constraint.

Around 77% of Vietnam’s exports are generated by foreign-invested firms.

High-tech products now account for roughly 40% of exports, but local value added in these categories is only around 16%. Vietnam participates deeply in global value chains, but captures a limited share of the economic value they generate.

Export volume alone does not deliver high-income outcomes. Value capture does.

Without a step change in skills, technology adoption, and domestic supplier integration, export-led growth will increasingly hit diminishing returns.

Rising household incomes in Vietnam, but a weakened domestic pull

If Vietnam is to reach a high-income status, domestic demand must eventually become a reliable growth pillar. For now, it remains constrained.

Affluence is real

Household affluence has expanded meaningfully. Approximately 59% of households are now classified as ABCD consumers. Retail sales of goods and services reached around US$270 billion, equivalent to roughly 60% of GDP. Asset ownership, financial inclusion, and urban living standards have all improved.

Confidence is the defining constraint

Despite rising incomes, consumption growth remains cautious.

Household savings rates have risen from an estimated ~8.5% pre-2019 to ~10% in 2025, even as incomes increased.

Consumer sentiment has not returned to pre-2019 levels. COVID-19 scarring, income volatility, healthcare and education costs, and rapid formalisation have altered household psychology. Spending is deliberate, upgrades are delayed, and financial buffers are prioritised.

Domestic demand cannot become a growth engine if households do not trust the durability of their incomes.

Vietnam’s digital economy and tourism: Scale is being delivered; the next growth phase requires upgrading

Two sectors are frequently cited as engines of Vietnam’s next phase of growth. Both have reached scale. Neither is guaranteed to deliver high-income outcomes without qualitative upgrading.

Vietnam’s digital economy

Vietnam’s digital economy reached approximately US$39 billion in 2025, equivalent to ~8.7% of GDP. Internet penetration exceeds 78 million users, and smartphone usage among adults is close to universal.

The next phase depends on Vietnamese-owned value creation, depth of monetisation, access to capital, and the emergence of domestic platforms capable of retaining economic value.

Vietnam’s tourism thrives

Tourism is thriving. Inbound international arrivals rose by around 20% in 2025, while domestic tourism increased by approximately 25%.

The average spend per trip for domestic tourists is roughly VND 9.7 million (≈US$380).

Volume growth alone will not lift tourism into a high-income contributor. Destination quality, infrastructure discipline, and spend per visitor now matter more than raw numbers.

Why is productivity the decisive factor for Vietnam’s dash to high-income status by 2045?

This is the decisive challenge on the path to 2045.

The over-50 population has grown from ~18% in 2010 to ~28% in 2026, and is the fastest-growing age segment.

As ageing accelerates, labour-led growth slows structurally. To sustain progress toward high-income status, Vietnam requires sustained productivity growth of approximately 4% per year, not episodic efficiency gains.

Productivity is harder than growth. That is precisely why it is decisive.

This demands significant changes: skills upgrading, technology diffusion, enterprise-level efficiency, and tighter integration between foreign investment and domestic supply ecosystems.

Vietnam policy signals: strong direction, narrowing margin for error

Vietnam’s policy agenda is directionally aligned with the productivity challenge. Government restructuring, private enterprise repositioning, SOE reform, tax formalisation, digital identity, capital market upgrading, and infrastructure investment targeting around 7% of GDP all point in the right direction.

Vietnam aims to upgrade from frontier to emerging market status as early as 2026, subject to review.

The risk lies not in intent, but in sequencing and execution. As formalisation deepens, confidence becomes more sensitive to policy signals. Missteps will be felt faster and more broadly than in the past.

Vietnam’s dash to high-income status by 2045: Vietnam is entering its next challenging growth phase

Vietnam remains one of Asia’s most compelling long-term opportunities, but it is no longer easy to access.

Confidence, productivity, and value capture now matter more than the speed of growth.

For business leaders, shallow localisation strategies will underperform. For investors, volatility must be accepted alongside conviction. For policymakers, protecting confidence while enforcing reform is now the central balancing act.

Vietnam’s dash to high-income status by 2045 will be decided in the 2030s

Vietnam’s dash to high-income status is credible. Its momentum is real. But the margin for error is shrinking. The dash to high-income status depends less on how fast Vietnam grows and more on how effectively it converts growth into productivity, confidence, and domestic value.

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