Vietnam 2026 economic outlook: Policy progress meets cautious consumers

Richard Burrage
Oct 08, 2025

Vietnam 2026 economic outlook. Vietnam is entering 2026 with renewed optimism and a dose of realism. According to Cimigo’s latest Vietnam 2026 Outlook (October 2025), the country’s economic story is shifting from post-pandemic recovery to structural transformation. While growth drivers are strengthening, consumer sentiment remains cautious, and businesses must navigate both momentum and restraint.

Vietnam’s economy showed strong momentum in Q3 2025, with GDP up 8.2%, industrial output rising 8.4%, and retail sales up 10.6% year-on-year, driven by a 22% surge in international visitors and solid export growth.

Vietnam 2026 economic outlook

A stronger policy foundation

The government’s reform agenda is poised to deliver long-term gains. Vietnam has abolished the district tier, moving toward a two-level local government model, while consolidating ministries and agencies to enhance efficiency. Key fiscal and investment measures, such as extending the reduced VAT rate of 8% until December 2026 and targeting infrastructure investment equivalent to 7% of GDP, signal a pro-growth stance.

At the same time, introducing digital identity (VNeID), mandatory digital reporting for household businesses, and new frameworks for International Financial Centres in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang all point to a more digitised, globally connected economy. Vietnam’s stock market is expected to advance from frontier to secondary emerging market status by September 2026.

Business sentiment rebounds

Cimigo’s CEO survey shows improving confidence: leaders expect Vietnam’s economy to outperform the global one. Yet they remain wary of external risks, particularly tariffs and shifts in key export markets.

Consumers are still cautious, but spending is rebounding.

Retail demand, which represents 55% of GDP, continues to expand. Goods sales rose 9% and services 15% to September YTD 2025, with total consumer retail up 10%. Domestic tourism has been a bright spot, supported by a 22% rise in international arrivals to September YTD 2025.

Still, households save more, 10% of income in 2024 versus 8.5% in 2019, and consumer sentiment remains stable but below pre-pandemic levels. Inflation pressures, cautious spending, and a lingering preference for value over premium products define today’s marketplace.

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Modern trade and digital surge ahead

Vietnam’s retail landscape is rapidly formalising. Modern trade now accounts for 27% of retail sales, up from 15% in 2005, with a 16% increase in outlets this year alone. WinMart+, FPT Long Châu Pharmacy, and Con Cưng lead the expansion. Online retail, driven by Shopee and TikTok, now captures 11% of retail goods sales. The broader digital economy is valued at US$36 billion, 8% of GDP, up from just US$3 billion a decade ago.

Vietnam 2026 economic outlook: cautious optimism

Cimigo forecasts Vietnam’s GDP to grow 7.7% in 2025, with consumer retail demand strengthening by 7–9% in 2026 in USD terms. For companies budgeting against domestic demand, Cimigo recommends adding two percentage points to 2025 growth targets.

Vietnam’s economic direction is clear: steady reforms, expanding digital infrastructure, and a gradual revival in consumer confidence. The challenge and opportunity for business leaders lies in aligning with this dual narrative of policy-driven progress and cautious consumption.

If you have any questions or specific needs, please get in touch with us at ask@cimigo.com.

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