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Indonesia’s economic outlook Q3 2025
A short report by Cimigo market research on the outlook for Indonesia’s economy based on key results from Q2 2025. It examines the economic environment, focusing on key indicators beyond GDP and providing a more nuanced view of the country’s economic situation.
Indonesia’s economy is showing cautious signs of recovery
The Q3 2025 GDP growth rate of 5.04% is primarily driven by the accommodation, food and beverage sectors, along with health and corporate services. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes 19% of GDP, also recorded a year-on-year growth of 5.54%.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicates sustained expansion
It remains above 50, reflecting a positive shift in manufacturing activity and exports, which surged by 9.9%. However, amid rising inflation, household budget pressures, and job-finding difficulties, consumer confidence is faltering, impacting discretionary spending. Year-to-date retail sales are up by 5.8%, yet some sectors, such as communication equipment, are declining.
Indonesia economic outlook Q3 2025
For more of Cimigo’s perspective on the outlook for Indonesia’s economy, please download the report.
Looking for more insights on Indonesia? Explore other reports from Cimigo here.
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The team at Cimigo are my favourite researchers in South East Asia. They’ve proved adept at tackling the most private and complex personal issues at qualitative research level, not flinching when the client endlessly chopped and changed fieldwork timing, or ramped up the workload without warning. They have recruited the most extraordinarily niche consumers without pause or complaint. Their patience with clients and their flexibility and hard work that went above and beyond what was initially asked of them on two projects relating to sexual behaviour means there is now no other research company we would choose to work with in that part of Asia. The fact they also pulled off a third project for us so well, on men’s relationship with beer and beer advertising, shows they have breadth of expertise— we still quote from the report they produced.
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