Kết thúc 2025 triển vọng kinh tế lạc quan nhưng CEO nên thận trọng trước bất ổn toàn cầu

Khi năm 2025 dần khép lại, triển vọng kinh tế 2026 của các CEO Việt Nam được mô tả bằng sự lạc quan có chừng mực – dựa trên nền kinh tế trong nước vững vàng nhưng vẫn bị chi phối bởi những rủi ro toàn cầu kéo dài. Các khảo sát CEO Pulse của Cimigo, được thực hiện phối hợp cùng Vietnam Business Executive Network vào các tháng 4, 9 và 12/2025, cho thấy niềm tin vào triển vọng kinh doanh tại Việt Nam đang dần cải thiện, bất chấp những biến động quốc tế.

Khảo sát CEO Pulse tháng 12/2025, dựa trên ý kiến của 50 CEO, ghi nhận tâm lý tích cực hơn so với đầu năm, cho thấy doanh nghiệp bước vào năm 2026 với tinh thần lạc quan hơn. Từ kỳ vọng doanh thu đến nhận diện rủi ro, bức tranh chung phản ánh lạc quan đi kèm thận trọng, tập trung chiến lược và sự dịch chuyển trọng tâm sang các cơ hội trong nước.

Niềm tin kinh doanh tại Việt Nam tăng mạnh trong 2025

Triển vọng kinh doanh của các CEO Việt Nam cải thiện rõ rệt trong suốt năm 2025. Sau giai đoạn sụt giảm niềm tin vào tháng 4 vì lo ngại về thuế quan toàn cầu khiến 23% CEO dự báo điều kiện kinh doanh sẽ xấu đi – xu hướng đã đảo chiều vào tháng 12. Khi đó, 66% CEO kỳ vọng điều kiện kinh doanh sẽ cải thiện trong 12 tháng tới.

Sự gia tăng niềm tin này không chỉ phản ánh khả năng thích ứng trước thách thức bên ngoài, mà còn cho thấy niềm tin vào nền tảng kinh tế vĩ mô của Việt Nam.

Triển vọng kinh tế 2026: Lạc quan dựa trên sức mạnh kinh tế nội địa

Nền kinh tế Việt Nam tiếp tục là trụ cột của sự lạc quan đối với các nhà lãnh đạo doanh nghiệp. Trong khảo sát tháng 12, 6/10 CEO tin rằng kinh tế Việt Nam sẽ tăng trưởng trong năm 2026. Quan điểm này duy trì ổn định trong nửa cuối năm, với 63% CEO có cùng nhận định vào tháng 9.

Ngược lại, triển vọng kinh tế 2026 toàn cầu vẫn khá dè dặt. Chỉ 20% CEO tin rằng kinh tế thế giới sẽ cải thiện trong năm 2026, cho thấy dù kinh tế nội địa vững vàng, Việt Nam vẫn khó tránh khỏi tác động từ bối cảnh toàn cầu.

Triển vọng kinh tế 2026: Kỳ vọng doanh thu tăng, nhưng rủi ro vẫn hiện hữu

Vào tháng 4, chỉ 33% CEO có kế hoạch tăng chi tiêu đầu tư, trong khi kế hoạch tuyển dụng vẫn thận trọng, với 23% dự báo cắt giảm nhân sự – tăng so với mức 14% của năm trước. Tuy nhiên, đến tháng 9, 62% CEO cho biết doanh thu 2025 đang đạt hoặc vượt kế hoạch, củng cố đà tăng trưởng hiện tại.

Bước sang năm 2026, triển vọng doanh thu vẫn tích cực. Các CEO kỳ vọng mức tăng trưởng doanh thu trung bình đạt 11%. Tuy vậy, sự lạc quan này đi kèm với cái nhìn thực tế và thận trọng.

Thuế quan và địa chính trị tiếp tục là mối lo lớn của CEO Việt Nam

Nếu có một yếu tố rủi ro kéo dài trong suốt năm 2025, đó chính là nguy cơ gián đoạn thương mại toàn cầu. Lo ngại về chiến tranh thuế quan và chính sách thương mại của Mỹ nhắm vào Việt Nam xuất hiện xuyên suốt các khảo sát.

Tháng 4, 67% CEO xác định chiến tranh thuế quan toàn cầu là rủi ro chính, tiếp theo là khả năng Mỹ áp thuế lên Việt Nam (59%). Những lo ngại này tiếp tục kéo dài đến tháng 9, với 59% lo ngại chiến tranh thuế quan và 55% quan ngại về nguy cơ suy thoái kinh tế Mỹ.

Sự nhất quán của những mối lo này cho thấy, dù điều kiện triển vọng kinh tế trong nước tích cực, môi trường bên ngoài vẫn tiềm ẩn nhiều bất ổn.

Hạ tầng và cải cách hành chính được xem là động lực tăng trưởng trong tương lai

Trong năm 2025, các CEO ghi nhận nhiều sáng kiến do Chính phủ dẫn dắt, tập trung vào cải cách hành chính, phát triển hạ tầng và chuyển đổi số.

Đầu tư hạ tầng được đánh giá là đòn bẩy kinh tế tích cực nhất, với các dự án lớn như metro TP.HCM và sân bay Long Thành được kỳ vọng sẽ thúc đẩy tăng trưởng. Tuy nhiên, vẫn tồn tại những lo ngại liên quan đến khả năng kết nối giao thông từ sân bay Long Thành vào trung tâm TP.HCM. Bên cạnh đó, các chính sách miễn thị thực, tinh gọn bộ máy quản lý và cải cách hành chính được kỳ vọng sẽ mang lại tác động tích cực cho nền kinh tế.

Ở chiều ngược lại, các quy định mới yêu cầu hộ kinh doanh chuyển đổi số, kê khai doanh thu và thuế VAT làm dấy lên lo ngại về gánh nặng hành chính, chi phí tuân thủ và áp lực lạm phát.

Triển vọng kinh tế 2026: Tự tin nhưng thận trọng trước các cú sốc bên ngoài

Khi bước sang năm 2026, tâm thế của CEO Việt Nam có thể được tóm gọn trong cụm từ “tự tin nhưng thận trọng trước các cú sốc bên ngoài”. Dù kinh tế nội địa được kỳ vọng tiếp tục là điểm tựa tăng trưởng, các rủi ro toàn cầu từ thuế quan đến lạm phát vẫn luôn hiện hữu.

Với các CEO Việt Nam, trong bối cảnh triển vọng kinh tế 2026 dự đoán là lạc quan nhưng vẫn rất dè dặt, bài toán trọng tâm trong năm tới là cân bằng giữa tham vọng tăng trưởng và khả năng linh hoạt, tận dụng sức mạnh của thị trường trong nước, đồng thời chuẩn bị sẵn sàng trước những biến động toàn cầu.

Truy cập AskCimigo và trao đổi trực tiếp với trợ lý AI của chúng tôi để khám phá thêm thông tin từ báo cáo.

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AskCimigo – Nắm bắt người tiêu dùng trong tầm tay

Th12 04, 2025

Cimigo chính thức ra mắt AskCimigo. Đây là nền tảng thông tin người tiêu dùng

Mark Ratcliff - Managing Director

The team at Cimigo are my favourite researchers in South East Asia. They’ve proved adept at tackling the most private and complex personal issues at qualitative research level, not flinching when the client endlessly chopped and changed fieldwork timing, or ramped up the workload without warning. They have recruited the most extraordinarily niche consumers without pause or complaint. Their patience with clients and their flexibility and hard work that went above and beyond what was initially asked of them on two projects relating to sexual behaviour means there is now no other research company we would choose to work with in that part of Asia. The fact they also pulled off a third project for us so well, on men’s relationship with beer and beer advertising, shows they have breadth of expertise— we still quote from the report they produced.

If only all our research partners were as switched on and easy to work with.

Kevin McQuillan - Chief Marketing Officer

Starting with customer understanding is critical to how we manage our business and develop for the future. Cimigo undertook a challenging brief – across multiple cities and segments nationwide – and again came up with a high-quality solution with timely implementation and considered insights, allowing us to successfully orientate our plans and strategy around consumers in Vietnam.

Lisa Nguyen - Vietnam Marketing Lead

It's been a great experience working with the Cimigo team. The team was highly professional, proactive, and supportive, handling many complicated requests from us in such a limited time. I appreciate our cooperation and will definitely recommend Cimigo for upcoming similar projects.

Sam Houston - Chief Executive Officer

Cimigo’s responsiveness and insights exceeded expectations; I highly recommend their market research services. Atlas tasked Cimigo with analysing and prioritising opportunities across four international markets. Cimigo mapped the Architecture, Construction, and Engineering landscape in each market, identified and prioritised opportunities, derived a dollar value by opportunity and provided details on target prospects and projects. This data-driven approach has enabled Atlas to develop services and focus resources on where we can bring the most value in our international markets.

Minh Thu - Consumer Market Insights Manager

Working with Cimigo has been incredibly rewarding. Their exceptional service and unwavering commitment to excellence have been truly impressive. Together, we've successfully completed projects ranging from fabric care like detergents and fabric softener to home essentials like floor cleaner and dishwashing liquid in both urban and rural settings, showcasing Cimigo's versatility and dedication to reaching diverse markets. Thanks to Cimigo's dedication and expertise, we secured a major project with our client last year. I'm grateful for our partnership and excited for future collaborations.

Travis Mitchell - Executive Director

Cimigo has been an excellent partner for AmCham. They provided insightful feedback during the planning phase of our project and offered suggestions to ensure that we met our goals. Their analysis was comprehensive, thoughtful, and accurate, and I appreciated their customer service skills – I always felt that Cimigo had our best interests at heart. I’m very much looking forward to working with Cimigo again in the near future!

Malcolm Farmer - Managing Director

I have never seen or had support for our business like we have received from Cimigo Vietnam. The depth & understanding of our business shows how well you have studied both Jardines Distribution Inc. and Koppers Performance Chemicals. We, (JDI & KPC), really appreciate the efforts the whole Cimigo team have put into your research. The help to connect potential distributors for both our Industrial and retail products are absolutely on point. I will have no hesitation in recommending Cimigo Vietnam to any company wanting to venture into the Vietnam market.

Hy Vu - Head of Research Department

Cimigo is one of the top research companies in Vietnam that provides very good services and actionable insights. We have the pleasure of working with Cimigo. With extensive knowledge of Vietnamese consumers, Cimigo keeps bringing value to our company. We look forward to working with them in the future.

Joe Nelson - New Zealand Consulate General

The research provided by Cimigo provided our clients with very specific insights into consumer behaviour in Viet Nam. What I liked was the way Cimigo interpreted these insights to develop a clear call to action for our clients, which they are responding to with confidence.

Steve Kretschmer - Executive Director

Cimigo conducted a large, nationally representative demand forecasting study in Vietnam for us, including a discreet choice component, to assess demand for potential new male contraceptives in development to support funding decisions by The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The research was additionally complex by linking interviews with men and separate interviews with their female partners. The Cimigo team was professional, knowledgeable and adaptive through the process of understanding our needs and collaborating to find solutions that would work, resulting in a very successful study.

York Spencer - Global Marketing Director

I've had the pleasure to work with Richard and Cimigo over many years and across multiple markets. Cimigo was a key partner in our business decision making process including market entry strategy, brand positioning development, shopper insights, brand equity tracking, and consumer need state segmentation development. The Cimigo team are local market experts who understand consumer culture like no other. I would highly recommend them.

Mai Trang - Brand Manager of Romano

Cimigo is the research agency that I appreciate for their expertise and customer service. Cimigo understand well the business context for each of project hence they can design the research to best fit with the objectives. The optimization on methodologies, sample size and questionnaire bring the value to the projects I have worked with them. Cimigo can go beyond data and give me valuable insights for each of research projects based on their knowledge and experience with the industry. All of these support me well to navigate the brand strategy in short term and long term.

Hanh Dang - Product Marketing Manager

We partnered with Cimigo on assessing TET campaign launch focusing on improving booking through our platform. Cimigo, provided its customized campaign evaluation technique based on Cimigo Online Communities that fully meets our requirement in terms of type of respondents and expected timelines. The report provided insightful findings with benchmarks to identify the next course of action for launching the campaign. We will recommend Cimigo team and its Online communities for its quality reporting and scale of coverage.

Max Lee - Project Manager

Cido have worked with Cimigo in Vietnam for more than 10 years. All our projects, both qualitative and quantitative, have been delivered in a timely manner with a high standard of quality throughout. Cimigo’s client service team has provided great support over the years which has ensured smooth project execution and helped us to deliver work on time and exceed our client’s expectations.

Chris Elkin - Founder

I have partnered with Cimigo over the past 15 years. Most recently Cimigo engaged us to collaborate on an unusually tough new product development project, which was akin to selling ice to Eskimos. Cimigo bought alive the consumer, her shopping journey, her cooking rituals and potential brand promises. Cimigo inspired our creative team to build alternate brand propositions and accompanying package designs. Cimigo then went back to consumers to evaluate, iterate and optimise these in focus groups. The Doodle team were able to observe this process and subtly adjust the expression of the brand between focus groups. The result of this great collaboration was a winning brand proposition and packaging design that hit consumer needs head on whilst appealing to their hearts.

Ronald Reagan - Deputy Group Head After Sales & CS Operation

We have worked together with Cimigo many times. The findings from Cimigo are factual, accurate & reliable. They deliver value from the voice of our customer so we can easily determine the next step. Working with Cimigo feels like not only building a partnership but a sense of family. Very amazing to work with Cimigo, they always go beyond our expectations.

Matt Thwaites - Commercial Director

Cimigo designed a customer experience programme for Coats that reached into Vietnamese, Chinese and Korean customers across various levels of seniority. Cimigo instilled the importance of the voice of the customer within our executive committee. This led to fundamental changes in our structure, services and speed to market. Significant investments were made behind these improvement programmes, for example in reducing delivery times and in managing specialised custom orders, which in turn have led to improved revenue streams and higher margin sales.

Dr. Jean-Marcel Guillon - Chief Executive Officer

Cimigo have built and managed both our employee and customer experience programme since 2012. We have a complex suite of services with in-patient, out-patient, surgical, diagnostic, consultative and facilities to account for, all amongst patients who are naturally sensitive regarding their privacy and experience. Yet Cimigo have designed a system to measure customer experience across multiple languages and cultures and direct us in improving this experience. Our net promoter score (NPS) has grown as a direct result of changes implemented based on this direction and continuously listening to patient feedback. The NPS growth correlates directly to new patient numbers and improved profitability, as happier customers drives our business growth.

Rick Reid - Creative Director

As a creative director I have used the services of Cimigo for the past 15 years when developing communications, so I know their style, innovations and resources well. Most recently we tested copy for print, out of home and digital communications to put an Australian colloquialism into a Vietnamese context. A job and budget so small I felt it was highly likely to fall through the cracks. I was astounded at their incredible response. From their advice and style of how we should present the stimulus material, to their cross-reference manoeuvres used in the testing. Their over-delivering response, was to an embarrassing level. We walked away with a clear winner and could present back to our client with confidence and clarity. Cimigo made us look great. Plus they even threw in a few extra insights on the awareness and perception of the product in Vietnam.

Private English Language Schools - Chief Executive Officer

Our relationship with Cimigo goes back many years. We engaged Cimigo to provide an independent view on what our customers and potential customers think of our company. The insights from Cimigo were very helpful for us to better understand the Vietnam market and also in developing our brand manifesto.

Chad Ovel - Partner

Cimigo digs deep to understand the key issues we need to address. Then, they quickly customize a highly suitable research approach to provide us the insights we need to achieve our breakthrough business targets. From tough questions to aha answers in just a few easy conversations!

Thuy Le - Consumer Insight Manager

Pharmacity started a Brand Health Check with Cimigo in 2020 and we were immediately impressed with their great consultancy and supportive spirit. The study had interesting analysis and insights which helped us efficiently shape the marketing plan and direction moving forward. We are now working with Cimigo on a tracking basis to continuously monitor and foster our brand performance.

Kelly Vo - Founder & Host

I respect Cimigo not only because of their dedication, meticulousness, and high-quality services but also how much they care about the local community here. I proposed the idea of doing a survey with the digital young generation on the topic of social impact and leadership. I wanted to identify, shape, and develop our content so that could really speak to the heart of the problems and empower young Vietnamese to take action on social impact in Vietnam. The Cimigo team agreed pro-bono to help without hesitation. The research findings are truly helpful in providing us a deeper understanding of our targeted audiences, what they need and are concerned about in life. The results show us how we can help them to achieve their goals and dreams. It is no longer a shot in the dark!

Hamish Glendinning - Business Lead

Cimigo not only delivered an exceptional piece of qualitative research for us, but provided hugely valuable direction when it came to product development and market positioning which we have since implemented. We can’t wait to work with the team again.

Ha Dinh - Project Lead

I have worked with CIMIGO on educational research for over 4 months. This is extremely impressive to me by the way CIMIGO approaches, cooperating and supporting me during the research launched. Specifically, the design for both qualitative and quantitative research are practical and logical with accurate questionnaires and appropriate interviews methodology for different respondents. Moreover, the outcomes of this research helps us to recognize our opportunities in the current English Language Training Market and understand profoundly our customer needs, behaviours and expectations when sending their children to us.

Richard Willis - Director

When we were looking to develop one of the worlds the leading economic indicator in Vietnam, the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) Cimigo showed an immediate understanding of our needs and showed their understanding of the Vietnamese market. IHS Markit has now been working with Cimigo since 2013. Every month Cimigo continues to provide high quality data, a representative panel, on time data and great customer service. We look forward to many more years of working together.

Aashish Kapoor - Head of Marketing

Cimigo - The best “Glocal” market research firm in Vietnam with whom we have developed a great partnership since many years. While the quality of research and findings are of top standard, the added advantage being the local insights that Richard and his team are able to provide in helping us make important decisions.

Thu Phung - CTI Manager

Cimigo is not the type of agency that "fill in the template", but it's customized as per the needs and expectations of Client. Cimigo makes research interesting by applying new approaches to address the business issue, for example, it's known by default that product test is CLT, but at Cimigo, we did group debate for deeper understandings and insights and that resulted as a winning product which is selling well in the market. Last but not least, Cimigo makes me understand that research is a journey, not just a project."

Tania Desela - Senior Product Manager

It was a pleasure working with Cimigo. Their expertise in consumer and market research was a significant benefit as they assisted our organization in understanding our market position in more detail and validating our hypothesis in go-to-market strategy. We were more than happy with the findings and would definitely recommend them.

Dennis Kurnia - Head of Consumer Insights

Over the last 5 years I have worked with Cimigo on a wide array of projects, ranging from market segmentation to product testing. At all times, I found them to be swift in response and providing high quality insights and business recommendations applicable to our business. Furthermore, I am satisfied with their fieldwork quality despite the crunched timeline that we had in some projects. Overall, I highly recommend Cimigo for their professionalism.

Aimee Shear - Senior Research Executive

We partnered up with the Cimigo team on what was a particularly challenging project – we were faced with numerous timeline delays and logistical concerns – yet the team were incredibly accommodating through their patience, flexibility and commitment. Not only were the team supportive during the set up of our project, but we were really impressed by the outputs delivered – they were insightful, rich and very comprehensive. Cimigo were brilliant partners to work with and we look forward to working with them again.

Louise Knox - Consumer Technical Insights

Just to say a huge thank you for all of the film footage. We are absolutely delighted with it all. The Vox Pops are really interesting and have turned out very well – those ladies were great at talking spontaneously. You did a great job. Thank you for your patience and perseverance with getting this off the ground.

Vo Thi Thuy Ha - Commercial Effectiveness

Working with Cimigo, we can see the dedication, good business sense, and great client service from the Cimigo client service team. Cimigo's team always demonstrates a high standard of client service with high flexibility, trying to offer the most suitable options for clients, although sometimes it is quite a stretch. Cimigo often offers very interesting approaches to solving our research objectives. I appreciate that the team can go the extra mile, trying to find good methodology and insightful findings to answer MSD's business questions.

Geert Heestermans - Marketing Director

Cimigo is and will be our strategic research agency. We are happy with your work and the way our projects are handled. You walked the extra mile and we are grateful for that Cimigo is and will be our strategic research agency. We are happy with your work and the way our projects are handled. You walked the extra mile and we are grateful for that

Linda Yeoh - CMI Manager

We have worked with Cimigo over 2 projects in Vietnam. Thuong and her team has proven to be reliable being on top of the projects, managing different stakeholders and business objectives. They are flexible in terms of ways of working and are able to cope with last minute changes. The research findings (Quant + Qual) have helped us understand Vietnamese in a deeper level, allowing us to make clear decisions to be successful in the market. Thank you Thuong, Nhu Tran and team for supporting us.

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