Vietnam PMI Tháng 5/2026: Hoạt động tích trữ hàng tồn kho góp phần thúc đẩy đơn hàng mới tăng trở lại trong tháng 5

Đơn hàng mới và hoạt động mua hàng quay trở lại tăng trưởng, phản ánh chỉ số PMI Việt Nam cải thiện tích cực.
Sản lượng tăng mạnh.
Lạm phát chi phí đầu vào tiếp tục tăng tốc.

Cimigo Vietnam market research đã thu thập chỉ số PMI Việt Nam – chỉ số nhà quản lý mua hàng ngành sản xuất từ năm 2013. S&P Global biên soạn chỉ số Vietnam PMI S&P Global từ các phản hồi của bảng câu hỏi hàng tháng gửi đến các nhà quản lý mua hàng trong một nhóm khoảng 400 nhà sản xuất.

Kết quả PMI Việt Nam

Sự tăng trưởng trở lại của đơn hàng mới trong tháng 5 đã giúp ngành sản xuất Việt Nam mở rộng hoạt động vào giữa quý II năm 2026. Ít nhất một phần của mức tăng này đến từ việc khách hàng gia tăng tích trữ hàng tồn kho an toàn do cuộc chiến tại Trung Đông gây ra tình trạng giá cả tăng mạnh và chậm trễ trong chuỗi cung ứng.

Tương tự, các nỗ lực tích trữ hàng tồn kho cũng khuyến khích các nhà sản xuất gia tăng hoạt động mua hàng. Mặc dù đơn hàng mới và sản lượng đều được cải thiện, các doanh nghiệp vẫn tiếp tục cắt giảm số lượng lao động do vẫn còn dấu hiệu của công suất dư thừa.

Chỉ số S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) tăng lên 52,8 điểm trong tháng 5, từ mức 50,5 điểm của tháng 4 và đạt mức cao nhất kể từ tháng 2, thời điểm trước khi cuộc chiến tại Trung Đông bùng phát. Điều kiện kinh doanh tổng thể tiếp tục cải thiện vững chắc trong tháng thứ mười một liên tiếp.

Sau khi giảm nhẹ trong tháng 4, đơn hàng mới đã quay trở lại tăng trưởng trong tháng 5, với mức tăng đáng kể và mạnh nhất trong ba tháng qua. Ở một mức độ nhất định, sự gia tăng của đơn hàng mới phản ánh việc khách hàng tăng cường tích trữ hàng tồn kho an toàn trước những lo ngại về tác động của một cuộc xung đột kéo dài tại Trung Đông.

Đơn hàng xuất khẩu mới cũng ghi nhận tăng trưởng trở lại, chấm dứt chuỗi hai tháng suy giảm liên tiếp. Tuy nhiên, tốc độ mở rộng chỉ ở mức nhẹ do chi phí vận chuyển cao và các vấn đề logistics tiếp tục hạn chế nhu cầu từ thị trường quốc tế.

Sự tăng trưởng trở lại của đơn hàng mới đi cùng với mức mở rộng đáng kể của sản lượng sản xuất trong tháng 5. Sản lượng tăng tháng thứ mười ba liên tiếp và với tốc độ nhanh nhất kể từ tháng 2.

Hoạt động tích trữ hàng tồn kho cũng được ghi nhận ở các nhà sản xuất khi hoạt động mua hàng tăng trở lại lần đầu tiên trong ba tháng và với tốc độ vững chắc. Tốc độ lạm phát chi phí đầu vào tiếp tục tăng tốc vào giữa quý II, tăng tháng thứ tư liên tiếp và đạt mức nhanh nhất kể từ tháng 4 năm 2011. Theo các doanh nghiệp tham gia khảo sát, nhiên liệu, dầu và chi phí vận tải là những yếu tố chính thúc đẩy chi phí đầu vào gia tăng.

Lạm phát giá bán cũng duy trì ở mức cao và nằm trong nhóm mức tăng mạnh nhất trong vòng 15 năm qua, mặc dù đã giảm nhẹ so với tháng 4. Chi phí nhiên liệu và vận chuyển tăng cao, cùng với các vấn đề về logistics, đã khiến thời gian giao hàng của các nhà cung cấp tiếp tục kéo dài trong tháng 5.

Xu hướng PMI tháng 5

Sự suy giảm hiệu suất của nhà cung cấp trong kỳ khảo sát mới nhất ít nghiêm trọng hơn so với kỳ khảo sát trước đó. Tuy nhiên, việc thời gian giao hàng tiếp tục kéo dài đã khiến tồn kho nguyên vật liệu đầu vào tiếp tục giảm, bất chấp hoạt động mua hàng gia tăng. Hơn nữa, tốc độ suy giảm của tồn kho trước sản xuất là nhanh nhất trong gần một năm qua. Tồn kho thành phẩm cũng giảm, mặc dù mức độ giảm thấp hơn so với tháng 4.

Mặc dù đơn hàng mới tăng trở lại trong tháng 5, nhu cầu suy yếu trong thời gian gần đây đồng nghĩa với việc các doanh nghiệp vẫn có đủ năng lực để xử lý đơn hàng mới và giải quyết khối lượng công việc tồn đọng. Do đó, lượng công việc chưa hoàn thành đã giảm tháng thứ hai liên tiếp.

Dấu hiệu của công suất dư thừa là một trong những nguyên nhân dẫn đến việc ngành sản xuất tiếp tục cắt giảm lao động, với số lượng nhân sự giảm tháng thứ ba liên tiếp. Tuy nhiên, tốc độ cắt giảm việc làm chỉ ở mức nhẹ.

Mức độ lạc quan đối với triển vọng sản lượng trong 12 tháng tới đã cải thiện lên mức cao nhất trong ba tháng vào tháng 5, nhờ kỳ vọng đơn hàng mới gia tăng và các kế hoạch mở rộng hoạt động kinh doanh. Tuy nhiên, tâm lý doanh nghiệp vẫn tương đối thận trọng, phản ánh những lo ngại về tác động kéo dài của cuộc chiến tại Trung Đông.

Tải báo cáo tại đây

PMI® Ngành Sản xuất Việt Nam của S&P Global được S&P Global thu thập từ phần trả lời cho các câu hỏi gửi cho các nhà quản trị mua hàng trong một nhóm gồm khoảng 400 nhà sản xuất. Nhóm khảo sát được phân chia theo ngành và quy mô lao động của công ty, dựa trên đóng góp vào GDP.

Những câu trả lời khảo sát được Cimigo Việt Nam thu thập vào nửa cuối của mỗi tháng và cho biết chiều hướng thay đổi so với tháng trước. Một chỉ số khuếch tán được tính toán cho mỗi tham số khảo sát. Chỉ số là tổng cộng phần trăm số câu trả lời ‘cao hơn’ và một nửa tỷ lệ phần trăm các câu trả lời ‘không thay đổi’.

Các chỉ số có giá trị từ 0 đến 100, với một kết quả trên 50 thể hiện một mức tăng tổng thể so với tháng trước, và dưới 50 thể hiện một mức giảm tổng thể. Các chỉ số sau đó được điều chỉnh theo mùa.

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Đội ngũ

Đội ngũ Cimigo tại Việt Nam sẵn sàng giúp bạn đưa ra những sự lựa chọn tốt hơn.

Giải pháp

Cimigo cung cấp các giải pháp nghiên cứu thị trường tại Việt Nam sẽ giúp bạn có những lựa chọn tốt hơn.

Xu hướng

Cimigo cung cấp các xu hướng tiếp thị của người tiêu dùng Việt Nam và nghiên cứu thị trường về phân khúc người tiêu dùng Việt Nam.

Báo cáo

Cimigo cung cấp các báo cáo nghiên cứu thị trường về các lĩnh vực thị trường và phân khúc người tiêu dùng tại Việt Nam.